Middle East · resolved market
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a9afa1f367fbdbb37ba016d1bc0453c8c21ca018e4542f0bb7f69671872c897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $326,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 8c | 25,940$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.1 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 5c | 14,229$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.62 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 10c | 13,491$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.99 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes | 8c | 10,246$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.95 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.92 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 11c | 9,225$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.75 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 9c | 8,680$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.07 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 14c | 8,676$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…5feebacked Yes | 6c | 8,581$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 15c | 8,000$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 6c | 7,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 12c | 7,427$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.37 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,023$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.22 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 16c | 6,727$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 15c | 6,396$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.94 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 15c | 6,188$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.41 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 40c | 6,052$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.35 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 7c | 6,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 8c | 5,953$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…4f53backed Yes | 15c | 5,300$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 3c | 4,421$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 9c | 4,421$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…5e9bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,200$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…4530backed Yes | 9c | 4,050$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…f398backed Yes | 1c | 4,036$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 7c | 4,015$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.15 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 3,491$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.27 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 3,198$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 3c | 3,115$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 3,110$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.24 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,999$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.47 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,900$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 13c | 2,877$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.06 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,798$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.63 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 10c | 2,743$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.48 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 2,459$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.55 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…ab82backed Yes | 6c | 2,450$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 28cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 2,368$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.18 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 15c | 2,155$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…17c1backed Yes | 16c | 2,050$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 13c | 1,962$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.77 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,900$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 25c | 1,677$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.07 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,404$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 2c | 1,399$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,382$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 13c | 1,320$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.58 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,258$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Yes | 16c | 1,213$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 10c | 1,210$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b7c0backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,085$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 19c | 1,050$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 9c | 1,050$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 15c | 974.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 900$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 16c | 897.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 829.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.28 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 824.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 4c | 800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 677.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Yes | 15c | 666.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 8c | 647.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 646.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…d622backed Yes | 38c | 575.87$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 7c | 555.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 549.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 10c | 523.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…e827backed Yes | 5c | 515.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 79c | 513.8$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 511.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…9f39backed No | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…02d4backed Yes | 2c | 496$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 15c | 481.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 2c | 479.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 9c | 440$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…7fb5backed Yes | 13c | 432$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 10c | 419.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…b20ebacked Yes | 32c | 409.73$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 25c | 387.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 13c | 324$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 13c | 314$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…e265backed Yes | 37c | 308.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 61c | 274.87$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?this page
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.