Middle East · resolved market
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcd6e99663f8b2056c91b7a766e084d20cde5bcfd54a97432596633921c02443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 9c | 19,267$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.78 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 9c | 17,999$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 11c | 7,960$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 6c | 7,736$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.64 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 4c | 7,400$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.16 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 6c | 7,175$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 6c | 6,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 3,859$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.92 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e75…2b11backed Yes | 2c | 3,833$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 3c | 3,231$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…3690backed Yes | 35c | 3,056$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 4c | 2,490$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,483$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 14c | 2,313$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.18 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 2,164$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,914$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,911$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,880$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 1,807$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.28 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,710$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 25c | 1,646$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.84 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 3c | 1,634$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 73c | 1,631$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.67 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 5c | 1,533$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 77c | 1,479$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.28 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 6c | 1,239$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 26c | 1,177$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.55 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 7c | 1,123$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 9c | 1,028$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 79c | 1,005$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 929.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a44…89b6backed Yes | 8c | 755.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 717$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…4686backed Yes | 11c | 715.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 710$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 20c | 676.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 7c | 657.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 618.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes | 8c | 616.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +317.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked Yes | 8c | 615.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 67c | 601.49$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.49 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b7c0backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…17c1backed Yes | 4c | 571.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 11c | 490.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 4c | 420$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…c9ffbacked Yes | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +302.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked No | 66c | 390$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Yes | 8c | 383.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 7c | 367.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 353$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…f2cfbacked Yes | 4c | 349$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 8c | 338$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…11a5backed Yes | 28c | 311.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 4c | 292.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…f433backed Yes | 6c | 291.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 6c | 282.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 254.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…5962backed Yes | 15c | 249.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 23c | 228$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 69c | 190$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 6c | 180.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…b20ebacked Yes | 22c | 178.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…6a78backed Yes | 7c | 169.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 12c | 160.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…a4f6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…2a23backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…985abacked Yes | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 143.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…5a4dbacked No | 75c | 132.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 129.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…36c1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…e241backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…972dbacked Yes | 18c | 87.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +85%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Yes | 25c | 84.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…b31cbacked Yes | 32c | 82.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…328abacked Yes | 39c | 76.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…9db8backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533f…7422backed No | 78c | 66.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 76c | 65.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 69c | 61.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes | 25c | 55.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 33c | 51.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…1e3abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…ad7bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…e2b9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ed…bf21backed No | 75c | 36.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?this page
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.