Middle East · resolved market
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64e2986a47cc4e152b9ab5010f16d17ddc62035ff113c07544c4d05db08ff083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 70c | 15,889$11,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0761…ad5cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 59c | 9,966$5,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,135.27 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 41c | 9,650$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.03 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 37c | 6,377$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 6,291$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.46 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 60c | 5,500$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.9 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 52c | 5,179$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.08 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 77c | 4,772$3,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.65 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 21c | 4,496$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.91 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 42c | 4,150$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.25 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 38c | 4,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 58c | 4,000$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.69 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked Yes | 58c | 3,542$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 50c | 3,334$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.47 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 3c | 3,072$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 51c | 2,733$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.91 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…7657backed Yes | 63c | 2,623$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 72c | 2,472$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.17 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 60c | 2,222$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.92 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…63cfbacked No | 45c | 2,199$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed No | 48c | 2,175$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…17c1backed No | 48c | 2,100$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 39c | 2,095$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.94 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 64c | 2,090$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.28 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.94 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 65c | 1,789$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.89 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 48c | 1,723$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 1,667$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 42c | 1,600$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.99 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 50c | 1,524$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.39 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,500$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 74c | 1,492$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.36 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,457$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.64 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,414$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.22 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 53c | 1,400$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 16c | 1,387$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.16 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,333$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.38 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 45c | 1,263$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.85 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 46c | 1,195$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.62 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 52c | 1,167$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.24 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,130$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.24 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked No | 52c | 1,117$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,056$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 48c | 1,048$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.7 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 1,033$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.6 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 64c | 950.76$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.4 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 43c | 950.43$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.69 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 49c | 918$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.72 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 65c | 917.61$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.04 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 49c | 900$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed Yes | 37c | 860.21$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 850.09$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.59 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 840$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 35c | 763.71$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.85 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 2c | 750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…9daabacked No | 68c | 736.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed No | 49c | 729.12$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 729.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed No | 45c | 699.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 59c | 692.56$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.79 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 668.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 29c | 638.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 47c | 595.51$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.62 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…fe3ebacked No | 48c | 559.62$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 55c | 549.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 60c | 542$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked No | 46c | 502.77$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.4 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 61c | 500$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.88 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 26c | 462.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 74c | 433.05$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 27c | 423.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed No | 26c | 422.82$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.99 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed No | 53c | 399.86$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.73 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 395.9$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 40c | 386.34$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.7 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +7.6wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 380.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 370.88$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.85 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed No | 58c | 366$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.28 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 52c | 365.48$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 74c | 361.62$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed No | 26c | 330.06$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 51c | 322.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 49c | 316.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 47c | 305$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 53c | 300.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?this page
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.