Middle East · resolved market
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e0190c0160f075a95fd5034b1d97d2245ef0c1ccb725fcbbadfc54db2ac8028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $530,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $557,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa50e…583ebacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…ddf6backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 71c | 19,358$13,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,584.38 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 39c | 11,298$4,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,409.42 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 0c | 10,057$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed Yes | 65c | 7,740$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 2c | 7,110$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 64c | 6,032$3,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.1 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 31c | 5,666$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.53 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 3c | 5,418$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 32c | 5,274$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.16 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 63c | 4,800$3,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.29 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,521$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…3e23backed No | 4c | 4,071$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 9c | 3,932$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.62 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 22c | 3,563$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.86 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…8783backed Yes | 66c | 3,469$2,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…27d2backed No | 29c | 3,300$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 33c | 3,120$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.99 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 38c | 2,917$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.06 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…63cfbacked No | 35c | 2,834$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,826$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 68c | 2,718$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.47 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 43c | 2,574$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 24c | 2,374$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.05 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 60c | 2,300$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.98 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 66c | 2,250$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked Yes | 63c | 2,017$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.83 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked No | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,846$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.78 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 1c | 1,763$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 65c | 1,694$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 29c | 1,692$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.75 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 36c | 1,558$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.85 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 38c | 1,504$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.92 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 61c | 1,471$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.72 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 1,463$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 62c | 1,450$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…ef71backed No | 33c | 1,435$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…17c1backed No | 34c | 1,370$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 32c | 1,300$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.99 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,204$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.33 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 32c | 1,183$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…40b4backed No | 29c | 1,172$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…cc56backed No | 44c | 1,146$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.14 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 67c | 1,050$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…4f53backed Yes | 63c | 1,049$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 32c | 1,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.02 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed Yes | 71c | 996.48$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 909.41$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.31 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked No | 2c | 875$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 5c | 793.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 3c | 748.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 71c | 699.28$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.79 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 72c | 686.13$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.11 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 60c | 680.2$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…4847backed No | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 65c | 649.99$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.35 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 36c | 600$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 33c | 599.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…d8d6backed No | 20c | 599.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 58c | 582.97$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked No | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 64c | 550$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked No | 37c | 550$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…593abacked Yes | 71c | 531.95$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 28c | 505.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed Yes | 61c | 500$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 52c | 500$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 65c | 499.99$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.2 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 31c | 480$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.31 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 36c | 475.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81c5…9d28backed Yes | 64c | 470$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 66c | 454.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.67 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 71c | 447.14$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 443.05$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.3 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes | 58c | 432.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 61c | 424$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5588…2a46backed Yes | 79c | 350$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 5c | 340$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked No | 33c | 339.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 80c | 336.03$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked Yes | 61c | 327.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 17c | 298.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…e6cdbacked Yes | 66c | 291.26$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2f…acf8backed Yes | 71c | 280.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bb…82edbacked Yes | 72c | 263.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…9daabacked No | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 61c | 259.53$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 65c | 251.22$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed Yes | 75c | 250$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?this page
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.