TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7b0f…179a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
210
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10038%38 W · 62 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$278.63
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$32.3
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.01
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+440.5%+$88.11
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$10.89
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$109
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$13.24
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.75
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT3735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+90.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$40.87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+432.6%+$374.59
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+175.7%+$293.42
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+241.9%+$483.77
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$212
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.74
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$664Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$663.55
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,642Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$1,037.29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,408Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$994.96
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+4,288.1%+$3,378.57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.06
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$886Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$406.6
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$7,984Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$4,454.91
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+70.1%+$88.02
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$35.89
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.97
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.44
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+118.3%+$35.5
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.73
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.13
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+57.1%+$34.24
LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+660.6%+$330.3
LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$14.69
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.33
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-81.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.31
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,180.68
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$467.04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,313Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$494.37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$28.05
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.4
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.6
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,125
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$264
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$171
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$696Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$695.5
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,045Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$278.41
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$356.9
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$575Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$575
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.42
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.02
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.95
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.03
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.9
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+362.3%+$2,606.94
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$258.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,883Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,883
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.3
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$4,229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,228.98
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.23
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,607.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,607.9%+$4,823.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.