TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,028,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$725,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,028,940 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33ef…c498backed Yes0c97,087$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c38,115$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.52370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes0c35,055$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5f…c035backed Yes1c30,627$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce8…6fa8backed Yes0c30,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f8…71a2backed Yes1c28,780$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes0c25,372$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.63205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes0c22,305$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.351330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed Yes0c19,508$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes0c19,310$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b19…1ad9backed Yes1c18,448$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738f…88c4backed Yes1c16,286$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7985…73c1backed Yes1c15,376$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes1c14,783$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4270%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes0c14,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes2c13,747$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.23728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+94.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c12,424$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x624c…593cbacked Yes1c12,040$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab3…b9bcbacked Yes4c11,847$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes1c11,111$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.63520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+506.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a90…03b5backed Yes2c10,504$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked Yes1c10,205$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c6a…97bebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked Yes0c9,570$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes0c9,495$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde4c…809ebacked Yes0c9,060$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad51…336dbacked Yes1c8,522$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes1c7,945$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.581330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c7,451$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.13345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked Yes3c7,210$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20590%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes0c6,455$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Yes1c5,911$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.991050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,604$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.691277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes0c5,528$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8b…48c8backed Yes0c5,087$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1860%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes0c5,008$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+284.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Yes0c5,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e34…36b1backed Yes2c4,801$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c4,662$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,630$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.17464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb3…6edcbacked Yes1c4,297$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10f…6c1ebacked Yes1c4,074$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes2c3,997$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes0c3,930$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9370%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12c…fae5backed Yes1c3,882$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes1c3,687$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf798…55f5backed Yes1c3,094$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x375a…dbd4backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d55…f488backed Yes3c3,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes1c2,815$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadcd…7c01backed Yes1c2,791$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f1…56bfbacked Yes1c2,773$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes1c2,609$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2863…91fbbacked Yes4c2,609$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb7…6f64backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes3c2,418$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8900…4d52backed Yes0c2,409$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,360$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.16110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e5…e6adbacked Yes1c2,295$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf479…0fe3backed Yes1c2,264$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…3783backed Yes1c2,229$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a5…6d2fbacked Yes1c2,229$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Yes1c2,226$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.331216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c2,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e2…a6fabacked Yes1c2,119$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2c…935cbacked Yes1c2,082$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2139…3700backed Yes1c2,038$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes1c1,988$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+202.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes1c1,860$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,730$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes1c1,718$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9785…2c5abacked Yes1c1,630$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes2c1,591$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1855…68a0backed Yes1c1,583$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c1,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick22cpaid+108.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd848…ba4bbacked Yes1c1,488$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd0…8387backed Yes2c1,443$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes3c1,398$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.341850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2173…d5dabacked Yes1c1,390$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b02…ccf1backed Yes1c1,251$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes1c1,205$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb646…d4f5backed Yes1c1,185$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe210…1918backed Yes1c1,135$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes1c1,120$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x580d…2263backed Yes1c1,083$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…284dbacked Yes1c1,083$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bb…2dc2backed Yes1c1,036$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes1c1,031$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5062…2c3dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick53cpaid-81%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe8dc…2c0dbacked Yes1c984$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3d…7f8dbacked Yes2c832.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb45…cef9backed Yes1c829.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32aa…6694backed Yes1c715.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20fd…fde4backed Yes2c652.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes2c628.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.