TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x97ff…f76a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT3912.8%5 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.98
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+1,292.4%+$387.72
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.32
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.03
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.01
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.29
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30.38
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15.86
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$19.3
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$21.93
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$15.77
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+455.6%+$136.67
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$36.19
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$53.16
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$41.76
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15.85
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT240%0 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.48
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)backed Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.34
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.41
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.35
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.3
All 24 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+135.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+1,747.8%+$404.62
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.25
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USAbacked Dominican Rep. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.93
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italybacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.83
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechiabacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Koreabacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.98
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipeibacked Chinese Taipei · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$148
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Koreabacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+26.6%+$24.95
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Czechiabacked Czechia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$21.61
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.