Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e49002199cc9b330a486b93355daef9fce4e6fd208325ba9e387b0c02bcdb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $508,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $508,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 143,452$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.45 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 91,457$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.31 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…441cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,780$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,606$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 2c | 5,419$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,028$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,287$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 2c | 3,424$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 1c | 3,280$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 2c | 3,047$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…f76abacked Yes | 1c | 2,917$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed Yes | 2c | 2,544$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 2,353$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,084$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,755$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,658$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,655$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 3c | 1,562$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…f3d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +358.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6433…9547backed Yes | 1c | 1,321$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,306$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,060$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 1,044$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…fa48backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…1ac1backed Yes | 2c | 944.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 813.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 3c | 720$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…53f7backed Yes | 3c | 690$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…df91backed Yes | 2c | 586.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…02a9backed Yes | 3c | 583.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 299.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 4c | 273.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.