Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80318619d06b5960c958a3888c5c553301e6bffcddecc89ec870a92eb981e257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,169$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 5,819$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.17 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 26c | 4,904$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.09 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e08…150cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,881$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 4,070$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.78 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 14c | 3,620$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.6 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 34c | 3,500$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.32 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 0c | 3,393$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 28c | 3,000$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.5 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 2c | 2,951$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,905$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.62 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,500$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.99 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 2,293$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.91 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 28c | 2,165$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.8 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…a191backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…3fd7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 43c | 1,843$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.08 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 34c | 1,843$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.97 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 60c | 1,771$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…95ebbacked No | 76c | 1,550$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.16 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 47c | 1,445$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.98 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 1,424$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.45 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 1,321$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.78 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 8c | 1,314$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 14c | 1,300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked No | 62c | 1,295$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.76 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 47c | 1,228$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.38 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 23c | 1,186$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.61 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 27c | 1,169$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.67 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,134$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…cbd4backed Yes | 61c | 1,118$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…eee6backed Yes | 55c | 1,084$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.33 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed Yes | 56c | 1,079$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 50c | 923.02$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.45 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 31c | 919.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.53 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…eaaebacked No | 61c | 910.91$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.74 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes | 7c | 900$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 899.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…bf8dbacked Yes | 40c | 894.76$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 57c | 881.16$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 35c | 879.85$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.47 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…a7afbacked No | 78c | 837.87$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 37c | 824.62$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.44 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 56c | 815.26$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.69 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 19c | 810$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.89 | 199 | 25.1%50 W · 149 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed No | 77c | 805.07$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.14 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 763.22$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.74 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 18c | 744.01$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…0fa7backed Yes | 2c | 724.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 692$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 53c | 669.97$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.48 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 661.64$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.61 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 25c | 647.24$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 28c | 641.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 24c | 637.49$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 47c | 574.64$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.74 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 65c | 542.13$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.15 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 22c | 508.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.57 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 22c | 499.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 79c | 487.42$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 486.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 56c | 460$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.8 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 6c | 444.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 23c | 432.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 40c | 431.66$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.59 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 55c | 420$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 48c | 413.37$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 54c | 408.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.75 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 403$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…4558backed Yes | 40c | 399.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 43c | 394.37$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…36efbacked No | 78c | 382.69$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…00e8backed Yes | 48c | 378.1$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 64c | 375$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 42c | 356.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 58c | 346.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0f33backed Yes | 57c | 346.74$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 57c | 346.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.27 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 335.43$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed Yes | 53c | 331.34$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 36c | 310.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c8…95e2backed Yes | 58c | 310$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 308.82$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…d9e5backed Yes | 56c | 306.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.25 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 51c | 306.06$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.03 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.