Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50f4057808d47947acfd12f84802d198dd866763cc37629b1467f7b7721bce61

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $382,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $406,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,037 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 435 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa638…1d87backed No	12c	21,668$2,647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,647.07	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No	0c	16,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	124	24.2%30 W · 94 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	15cpaid	+100.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed No	1c	15,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No	5c	14,303$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.54	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed No	2c	9,400$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.63	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked No	0c	7,033$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.22	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked Yes	40c	6,735$2,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,035.01	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	7c	5,691$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.6	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes	43c	4,650$1,996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,654.19	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	41c	4,405$1,817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,816.53	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No	51c	3,393$1,717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,717.3	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No	29c	3,299$973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.77	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed No	61c	2,958$1,796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,795.74	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed No	7c	2,824$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.15	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No	69c	2,641$1,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,811.06	117	25.6%30 W · 87 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	61c	2,608$1,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.08	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	51c	2,599$1,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,263.33	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed No	32c	2,328$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.98	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No	1c	2,109$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	210	63.3%133 W · 77 L	+22.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No	3c	2,100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.42	124	29%36 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+110.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	40c	2,078$821 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,256.9	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	59c	2,000$1,186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$813.56	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed No	2c	2,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.31	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed No	71c	2,000$1,424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,423.97	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No	48c	1,909$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.61	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	35c	1,840$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.05	309	55%170 W · 139 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed Yes	33c	1,801$593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,208.59	95	32.6%31 W · 64 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9060…790bbacked Yes	68c	1,794$1,219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.22	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No	29c	1,793$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.55	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No	66c	1,772$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,172.51	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb16…72bfbacked Yes	67c	1,766$1,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$585.55	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x738d…cc21backed No	51c	1,743$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.42	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.15per pick	58cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No	33c	1,703$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.09	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No	39c	1,575$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.64	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…765abacked Yes	75c	1,568$1,171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.29	22	90.9%20 W · 2 L	+4.3wins	+0.19per pick	71cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No	9c	1,566$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.97	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	77c	1,549$1,191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.74	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f4…2234backed Yes	53c	1,507$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$706.7	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes	76c	1,487$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.05	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f4…bf8dbacked No	41c	1,481$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.44	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	44cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	32c	1,472$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$995.76	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No	35c	1,459$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.2	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	31c	1,423$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$981.39	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed No	13c	1,422$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.91	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes	33c	1,420$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$945.02	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked No	47c	1,315$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.62	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No	28c	1,272$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.59	191	24.6%47 W · 144 L	-10.8wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	74c	1,269$944 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.55	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…eaaebacked No	42c	1,255$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.15	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	58c	1,208$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.05	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	2c	1,158$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	53c	1,130$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.47	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No	34c	1,120$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.04	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	36c	1,052$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.09	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa028…0f33backed Yes	54c	1,041$558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$483.23	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed No	9c	1,036$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	77c	1,029$796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.58	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No	49c	1,023$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.96	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d55…cd90backed No	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	20%10 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked No	27c	964.82$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.14	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No	23c	959.52$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.15	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked No	29c	949.54$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.88	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked No	42c	924.74$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.32	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked No	42c	907.98$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.71	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No	49c	894.2$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.13	83	42.2%35 W · 48 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes	38c	892.52$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.46	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	37c	891.84$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.93	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	57c	798.98$459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340.17	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b3e…74d0backed Yes	27c	785.45$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.45	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No	2c	766.03$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	43c	759.64$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca68…9c6cbacked No	53c	750$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.54	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No	5c	735.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked Yes	71c	733.43$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.43	183	57.9%106 W · 77 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x280b…d619backed No	40c	730.12$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.05	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28c0…d319backed Yes	72c	719.92$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.92	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes	50c	714.48$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.24	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed No	7c	706.78$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.47	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c5f…356abacked Yes	42c	700$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+4.1wins	+0.37per pick	35cpaid	+239.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	72c	692.07$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.2	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44fe…5c40backed Yes	75c	670.16$503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.54	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes	45c	669.52$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.52	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8723…3eedbacked Yes	65c	660.08$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.74	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8461…d9bfbacked Yes	73c	631.34$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.69	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes	21c	600$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$474	71	22.5%16 W · 55 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f3…aa71backed No	31c	599.97$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.99	67	62.7%42 W · 25 L	+8.5wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bc3…4972backed Yes	69c	584$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.2	212	42.5%90 W · 122 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes	38c	575.9$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.9	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes	46c	574.53$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.48	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	23c	571.27$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.59	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No	37c	542.56$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.12	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	63c	537.32$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.39	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…8ae1backed No	75c	533$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.75	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	75cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	25c	531.84$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$398.88	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4288…00e8backed No	44c	518.51$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.68	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11ab…5c6cbacked Yes	62c	517.66$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.66	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	34cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed No	44c	512.93$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	221	42.5%94 W · 127 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No	24c	499.98$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	78c	499.98$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.42	426	28.2%120 W · 306 L	-38.2wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked No	56c	494.17$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.21	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?this page
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event