TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9060…790b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3611.1%4 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.24
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$626Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+88.9%+$556.07
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.3
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.18
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.09
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.93
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.88
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.75
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.68
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.81
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.75
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,523.24
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,387.69
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.38
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.45
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.97
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.62
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+285.8%+$118.05
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.58
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.15
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,752Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$465.64
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.57
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.38
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$560.15
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,619.82
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$747Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$747.04
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$575.22
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.5
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+57.1%+$297.65
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.12
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+187.6%+$121.94
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.54
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$410
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+203%+$665.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$24.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,154.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.