Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e330af966ee7a782071c39138361017e2e2cc4b86568a08c4125832b238ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 48c | 7,061$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,664.4 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked No | 54c | 4,413$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.69 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 50c | 2,247$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.2 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed Yes | 35c | 1,235$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.14 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked Yes | 62c | 1,091$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 1c | 967.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 48c | 770.47$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.19 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 49c | 722.5$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.55 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 664.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 38c | 624$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.72 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 40c | 470.86$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.73 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 373.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 372.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed No | 65c | 337.7$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed No | 75c | 306.41$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 36c | 278.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 7c | 265.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 65c | 218.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 209.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 56c | 207.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 203.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…c3bcbacked Yes | 70c | 197.83$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 24c | 184.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 61c | 173.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 171.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed No | 22c | 137.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked No | 58c | 124.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 41c | 122.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 74c | 111.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 102.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…3990backed No | 57c | 100.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 29c | 94.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c3…882fbacked No | 32c | 85.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 69c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…7156backed Yes | 29c | 76.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 79c | 75.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 25c | 70.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128b…7c4fbacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 64.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 56c | 62.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f0…1c8fbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 61c | 58.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed No | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7319backed Yes | 75c | 53.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked Yes | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fb8ebacked No | 60c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed No | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 80c | 50.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x512d…c94bbacked Yes | 46c | 49.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked Yes | 45c | 47.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 40.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 59c | 30.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 28.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d8cabacked Yes | 80c | 20.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8601…02ccbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…c1e3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?this page
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.