TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb220…5f71

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
312
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT12155.4%67 W · 54 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 121 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.98
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.24
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.5
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$18.04
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$11.58
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.75
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.8
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$18.21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$4.67
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.61
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$5.51
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.88
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.79
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.98
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$4.69
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$12.62
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$12.43
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$25.41
Showing 25 of 121 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT3764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$10.78
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.38
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Reilly Opelkabacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+28.2%+$4.23
BNP Paribas Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Marton Fucsovicsbacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.21
BNP Paribas Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+28.2%+$3.36
BNP Paribas Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardbacked Kamil Majchrzak · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+78.6%+$11.79
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+106%+$12.72
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakinabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+128.5%+$23.07
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tienbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norriebacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+25%+$3.75
Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaurbacked Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Australian Open Men's: Learner Tien vs Nuno Borgesbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+51.5%+$7.73
Australian Open Men's: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.43
Australian Open Men's: Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Australian Open Men's: Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Cilicbacked Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonegobacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.43
Australian Open Men's: Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderibacked Darderi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+143.9%+$21.59
Australian Open Men's: Rinky Hijikata vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$8.81
Australian Open Men's: Karen Khachanov vs Nishesh Basavareddybacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.43
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Rafael Jodarbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+61.3%+$9.19
Australian Open Men's: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergsbacked Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+47.1%+$9.41
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST3231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC East?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$10.14
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+589.7%+$176.9
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Packers vs. Vikingsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+177.8%+$64
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Chiefs vs. Raidersbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Panthers vs. Buccaneersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+118.3%+$47.34
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+81.8%+$61.36
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$19.4
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$6.13
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Packers vs. Eaglesbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20.74
Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20.79
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Giants vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+69.5%+$17.37
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ONSIDE GAMING Win Challengers 2026: Korea WDG Split 2backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
Valorant: Çilekler vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Last Chance Qualifier Playoffsbacked Çilekler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will BBL Esports be the Last VCT EMEA Team Standing at EWC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.35
Will DRX Academy Win Challengers 2026: Korea WDG Split 2backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$33.69
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$8.49
Valorant: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matchesbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+105.6%+$27.82
Valorant: DRX vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$5.37
Will Paper Rex win Masters Santiago 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.8
Will NS RedForce win Masters Santiago 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.1
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.75
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked BBL Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$10.86
Valorant: All Gamers vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.98
Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked BBL Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$37.31
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$16.71
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+71.4%+$38.37
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+31.6%+$3.63
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+105.3%+$27.39
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+83.2%+$18.15
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20.88
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+31.7%+$22.26
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.64
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.18
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$8.19
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.98
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.13
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$6.71
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$12.6
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$66.6
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+128.6%+$163.13
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$36.66
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$84
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$56.31
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+45.7%+$22
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+299.5%+$84.32
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$7.94
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.63
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.44
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$16.91
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$32.63
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.4%+$18.42
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$37.76
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$14.18
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.25
Will the next Pope be from Asia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$19.94
South Korean President impeached in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+127.3%+$31.1
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.7
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.51
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.75
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.6
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+33%+$14.18
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$3.88
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$13.03
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.46
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$5.02
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$5.12
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.89
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+95.1%+$17.14
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$10.2
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$8.16
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.41
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+38.9%+$9.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+90.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oklahoma vs. Navybacked Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+122.2%+$24.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.