TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Seahawks vs. 49ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seahawksof Seahawks, 49ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,083,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,286,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,083,057 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Seahawks57c2,218,312$1,275,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943,003.8811145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 49ers41c990,058$408,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408,090.1286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Seahawks59c470,712$277,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192,991.9419553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers36c455,125$161,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,627.2847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked 49ers41c450,000$186,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185,999.984250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Seahawks62c424,371$264,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159,743.8130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Seahawks60c391,732$234,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,044.448747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers42c295,702$124,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124,245.8947348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked 49ers42c233,070$97,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,889.493767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Seahawks60c220,449$132,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,179.421752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Seahawks59c214,698$126,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,083.9219152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 49ers40c192,683$77,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,073.2316955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2826…5ea2backed 49ers23c169,043$38,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,900.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 49ers43c156,142$67,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,315.5553348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed 49ers41c154,146$63,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,782.639359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed 49ers42c100,000$42,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,0005550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed 49ers42c100,000$42,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,00010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Seahawks58c91,724$53,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,124.145154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed 49ers44c88,625$38,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,871.7627454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Seahawks75c82,645$62,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,497.4411643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e25…0af8backed Seahawks57c79,301$45,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,064.631136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Seahawks56c65,042$36,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,595.2624957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked 49ers40c58,144$23,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,338.887951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked 49ers43c58,140$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Seahawks79c57,182$45,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,911.575852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Seahawks73c52,864$38,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,186.1616836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 49ers12c52,530$6,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,101.2420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed 49ers40c50,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0006764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked 49ers40c50,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00012144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dc6…9889backed 49ers43c49,738$21,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,387.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers39c46,787$18,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,430.1620755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53f7…003fbacked 49ers33c45,013$14,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,860.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Seahawks78c41,983$32,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,408.4712748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Seahawks59c40,000$23,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,40016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed 49ers47c39,825$18,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,717.75219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed 49ers41c33,800$13,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,857.9612944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Seahawks58c33,113$19,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,929.6111544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Seahawks73c30,385$22,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,181.8473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed 49ers43c30,000$12,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,899.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked 49ers45c29,701$13,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,236.7517648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0886backed 49ers5c29,000$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.3915132.5%49 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Seahawks77c26,500$20,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,093.771752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Seahawks59c25,570$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,569.8418650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed 49ers25c25,000$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2503548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Seahawks54c24,707$13,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,365.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Seahawks56c24,444$13,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,755.369245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…29ebbacked Seahawks78c23,660$18,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,318.571573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Seahawks75c22,953$17,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,703.135648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed 49ers44c22,727$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0006738.8%26 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Seahawks79c21,249$16,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,406.4223244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed 49ers37c20,865$7,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,616.2524056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe405…c7f9backed 49ers1c20,367$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.751729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 49ers40c20,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a06…fb08backed 49ers13c18,651$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.222321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Seahawks62c18,000$11,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9105536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked 49ers42c17,727$7,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,445.423630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Seahawks59c17,453$10,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,155.5422349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa64…bf96backed Seahawks58c17,044$9,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,158.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Seahawks59c16,949$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,949.156965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Seahawks59c16,348$9,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.611258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked 49ers2c16,154$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.5433328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed 49ers40c15,954$6,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,381.7730743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe194…cd47backed 49ers7c15,580$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.82944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed 49ers42c15,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3005356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed 49ers42c15,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3007051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed 49ers1c15,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21012138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 49ers44c14,914$6,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,560.9621254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed 49ers44c14,461$6,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,362.841225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Seahawks59c13,536$7,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,549.731764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+45.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec40…0214backed 49ers2c12,758$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked 49ers41c12,653$5,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,187.734452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed 49ers41c12,500$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,15016226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Seahawks57c12,323$7,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,298.892441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked 49ers35c12,110$4,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,236.473823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed 49ers17c11,747$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9824252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 49ers46c11,658$5,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,377.2239447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked 49ers2c11,234$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.181486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Seahawks70c11,188$7,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,398.769853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed 49ers42c11,000$4,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5801060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked 49ers43c10,875$4,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6356639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Seahawks57c10,850$6,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,665.58551.8%44 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Seahawks68c10,821$7,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,503.527736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Seahawks69c10,235$7,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,192.883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed 49ers31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10016036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Seahawks58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-47.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed 49ers44c10,000$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,359.987558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed 49ers46c10,000$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,649.858351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked 49ers41c9,635$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,950.354650%23 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed 49ers37c9,225$3,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,406.983444.1%15 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b6…9ecfbacked 49ers35c9,194$3,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,226.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Seahawks57c9,000$5,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,87026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked 49ers42c8,905$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.812744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd95c…f1d7backed 49ers42c8,716$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed 49ers37c8,631$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1808128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked 49ers30c8,540$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.287737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf924…45c1backed Seahawks59c8,470$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,472.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed 49ers29c7,902$2,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.851866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked 49ers18c7,753$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.552751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed 49ers45c7,627$3,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.672544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Seahawks59c7,411$4,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.459248.9%45 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.