NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3312db05f5d34fc81fe95c5fcec96453412c10713c0dc421d6e20dbafc1fee8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof 49ers, Seahawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed 49ers | 48c | 59,124$28,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,560.75 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Seahawks | 52c | 14,374$7,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,889.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Seahawks | 51c | 11,790$6,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,777.49 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Seahawks | 52c | 8,264$4,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,945.59 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Seahawks | 56c | 7,150$4,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,147.5 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Seahawks | 51c | 6,723$3,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…70e4backed Seahawks | 52c | 5,100$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Seahawks | 62c | 4,862$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.66 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Seahawks | 53c | 4,333$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Seahawks | 58c | 3,793$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed 49ers | 37c | 3,490$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.36 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Seahawks | 51c | 3,214$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Seahawks | 52c | 2,278$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Seahawks | 52c | 2,204$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Seahawks | 55c | 2,154$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.15 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Seahawks | 53c | 1,539$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.68 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Seahawks | 52c | 1,472$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Seahawks | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed Seahawks | 52c | 662.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.23 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed 49ers | 53c | 562.16$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Seahawks | 56c | 461.93$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Seahawks | 51c | 343.45$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Seahawks | 51c | 280$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seahawks | 51c | 228.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed 49ers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…c62bbacked Seahawks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Seahawks | 55c | 175$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed 49ers | 49c | 174.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed 49ers | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Seahawks | 58c | 139$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Seahawks | 52c | 136.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Seahawks | 54c | 111.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Seahawks | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…719cbacked 49ers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed86…17fabacked Seahawks | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed 49ers | 52c | 75.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed Seahawks | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Seahawks | 52c | 63.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Seahawks | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Seahawks | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed 49ers | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…71e3backed Seahawks | 52c | 56.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed 49ers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Seahawks | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked 49ers | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…06dabacked Seahawks | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…c148backed 49ers | 53c | 45.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Seahawks | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Seahawks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Seahawks | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Seahawks | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked 49ers | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…1490backed Seahawks | 51c | 27.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 49ers | 44c | 26.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)this page
- Seahawks vs. 49ersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.