NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258ea75f2bd8290568760d0e852e522089ad39ab3d0fc44591586e1b2476fb15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof Seahawks, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7851…d471backed Seahawks | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed 49ers | 40c | 416.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Seahawks | 68c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked 49ers | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked 49ers | 31c | 88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked 49ers | 23c | 65.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…2b15backed 49ers | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aad…ff47backed Seahawks | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed 49ers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9d…27bcbacked Seahawks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Seahawks | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)Seahawks won
- Seahawks vs. 49ersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 36.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 40.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.