NFL · resolved market

Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702be4c02d5bef0372e694b7bf85507169aba83522f0e1e1062472b58c90c92f

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Seahawksof Seahawks, 49ers
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $113,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $115,208

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x58d7…7cf1backed Seahawks	55c	22,015$12,108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,906.85	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+48%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Seahawks	56c	21,583$12,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,496.47	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…b291backed 49ers	45c	21,501$9,675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,675.48	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Seahawks	50c	18,339$9,169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,169.25	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 49ers	44c	17,208$7,572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,571.66	212	54.2%115 W · 97 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers	44c	13,000$5,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,720	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed 49ers	50c	9,998$4,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,999	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x227e…e118backed 49ers	50c	8,321$4,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,160.25	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 49ers	44c	5,723$2,537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,537.05	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 49ers	46c	4,542$2,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,097.56	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Seahawks	56c	3,678$2,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,618.58	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed 49ers	45c	2,112$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.86	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebc9…6786backed Seahawks	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	57cpaid	+29%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked 49ers	46c	869.57$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2d…a920backed Seahawks	54c	640.74$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294.74	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Seahawks	57c	420.58$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.85	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Seahawks	52c	400$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2df4…3ffabacked 49ers	50c	400$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	50	26%13 W · 37 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed78…f62bbacked Seahawks	51c	392.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.16	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53b0…4daabacked Seahawks	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 49ers	45c	315.06$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.14	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked 49ers	48c	299.99$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Seahawks	54c	280$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.8	149	49%73 W · 76 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Seahawks	51c	250$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	134	48.5%65 W · 69 L	-9.4wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Seahawks	51c	249.99$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	278	35.3%98 W · 180 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Seahawks	57c	228.37$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.2	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Seahawks	57c	207.14$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.07	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Seahawks	50c	200.08$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.71	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed 49ers	43c	199.99$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	104	61.5%64 W · 40 L	+12.5wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x036a…4c9abacked 49ers	51c	194.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed 49ers	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Seahawks	56c	185.75$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.02	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Seahawks	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bae…7e8cbacked Seahawks	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5912…2fe0backed Seahawks	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Seahawks	57c	157.89$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.89	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed 49ers	44c	150$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bd…2bf8backed Seahawks	57c	135$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.05	45	40%18 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8a…e842backed 49ers	49c	128.59$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.01	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed 49ers	47c	123.64$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.11	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-6.1wins	-0.18per pick	59cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Seahawks	53c	115.32$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed 49ers	49c	112.89$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.32	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc5…e7f1backed 49ers	45c	111.61$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad5c…ac13backed 49ers	45c	110$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	-8.4wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf8e3…6548backed 49ers	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e0…719cbacked 49ers	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.28per pick	40cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Seahawks	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	243	52.7%128 W · 115 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Seahawks	49c	98.04$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…dffcbacked Seahawks	57c	96.49$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.49	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Seahawks	55c	91.36$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.11	266	49.6%132 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed 49ers	45c	88.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+3.4wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed 49ers	47c	85.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed 49ers	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	110	54.5%60 W · 50 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Seahawks	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	65	70.8%46 W · 19 L	+11.6wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed Seahawks	57c	60.16$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.87	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Seahawks	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e3…d0f9backed Seahawks	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03de…4bfdbacked Seahawks	53c	55.64$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.15	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f60…f897backed Seahawks	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6630…703cbacked Seahawks	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Seahawks	57c	53.51$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.01	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fe6…2f03backed Seahawks	57c	51.84$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.29	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc68…c62fbacked Seahawks	57c	51.84$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.29	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6666…c652backed Seahawks	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	50cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30ad…6a69backed Seahawks	57c	45.79$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.69	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked 49ers	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked 49ers	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed57…e0a0backed Seahawks	57c	42$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.06	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+8.3wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Seahawks	54c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	127	56.7%72 W · 55 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab52…5487backed Seahawks	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+4.6wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe80…dad1backed Seahawks	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Seahawks	57c	35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+9.7wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Seahawks	55c	34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	320	43.8%140 W · 180 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…bf01backed 49ers	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c44…6ecebacked Seahawks	55c	30.91$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.91	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2db9…846cbacked Seahawks	57c	29.95$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.88	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked 49ers	52c	25.69$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89fc…8d1bbacked Seahawks	57c	23.4$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.06	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Seahawks	56c	22.5$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3f0abacked Seahawks	57c	21.4$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Seahawks	57c	21.02$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.04	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+6.2wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ada…b8a0backed 49ers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	50%34 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…0a46backed Seahawks	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+6.5wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+59%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)this page
1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)Seahawks won
Seahawks vs. 49ersSeahawks won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 36.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 40.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5Under won
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5Under won
Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Seahawks won
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Seahawks won
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)Seahawks won
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)Seahawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event