TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC East?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 625 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,775$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.465679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes4c3,026$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.643237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Yes30c1,684$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.171060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No70c1,411$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.975852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes32c990.28$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.894531.1%14 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No67c538.91$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.289136.3%33 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeadd…79d9backed Yes25c478$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes31c437.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7753253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb29…5709backed Yes26c419$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde79…13bdbacked Yes25c378$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes22c374.31$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.722725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3492…24eebacked Yes26c374$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b40…2eb7backed Yes26c291$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c38…d022backed Yes26c289$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce65…d590backed Yes26c284$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cd…adabbacked Yes26c274$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…d3ffbacked Yes26c261$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa182…a99ebacked Yes26c260$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f6…84debacked Yes26c241$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7f…1e13backed Yes25c232$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099c…3be4backed Yes32c231.21$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-75.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a9…e641backed Yes25c231$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes29c226.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.076832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7355…b90fbacked Yes26c220$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69a1…379abacked Yes29c216.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.211637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5009…bc89backed Yes25c215$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039f…ec28backed Yes26c211$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb59f…fb2cbacked Yes26c202$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd4…5830backed No68c199.55$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ca…1ba3backed Yes25c197$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No74c189.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.52152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a94…454ebacked Yes25c188$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0d…82b6backed Yes26c183$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8155…c068backed Yes25c181$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0233…8e68backed Yes26c177$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bd…bfd4backed No75c175$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3664…f267backed Yes33c170$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.190%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…2697backed Yes25c170$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf6b…9431backed Yes31c164.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76d4…9cadbacked No75c163$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b4…b0c1backed Yes26c160$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f3…b22bbacked Yes26c160$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bbd…cbdcbacked Yes26c158$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…9afabacked Yes26c157$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b00…d1c2backed Yes26c156$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d3…5fbebacked No74c155$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd1…7040backed Yes33c153.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe66f…ac1cbacked Yes26c151$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe194…08e5backed No74c151$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+65.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6db…b398backed Yes26c145$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b2…3e88backed No74c145$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db0…3a42backed Yes26c143$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0584…9d55backed Yes26c143$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e2…25c1backed No75c140$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16e1…38efbacked Yes26c139$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbaa…c6dbbacked No75c138$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+170.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c68…91afbacked No74c137$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc804…a2bbbacked Yes25c137$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e01…457cbacked Yes26c136$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3430…a63ebacked No74c135$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ad…3e3ebacked Yes25c135$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ee…c3a0backed No75c135$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85c…9c19backed Yes26c134$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa651…0921backed No74c134$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4832…ac0dbacked No75c128$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc30…ebd1backed Yes25c128$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0d…afc5backed Yes26c127$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca5…1855backed Yes25c125$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4c…4d70backed No75c124$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8038…b731backed No74c123$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68f2…8df6backed Yes26c122$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb39…0975backed Yes26c121$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a67…659fbacked Yes26c121$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ec…b3d3backed Yes26c117$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d5…0f0bbacked Yes25c116$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe05b…f06abacked Yes25c115$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e9…d57abacked Yes26c115$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec11…5021backed Yes26c113$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfcc…58dfbacked No74c112$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x372c…99f0backed No75c112$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7229…b5e1backed Yes25c111$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…ce7bbacked Yes26c109$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d4…c093backed No74c108$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb092…09a1backed Yes26c108$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ce…1deebacked Yes25c107$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d2…79dabacked Yes25c106$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7114…46dabacked Yes25c105$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b2f…1ff5backed Yes26c104$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…609ebacked Yes26c104$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1101…0efabacked No74c104$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+128.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b5…0e9fbacked Yes25c104$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0418…21d1backed No75c104$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b4…33cbbacked No74c102$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a9b…5ae4backed Yes26c101$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes26c100.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.581216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-68.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x362f…3a8bbacked Yes26c99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9365…16bfbacked Yes26c98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22dd…8659backed Yes25c98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89d…b110backed No74c97$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d82…15fcbacked No74c96$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+165.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.