TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x69a1…379a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Olympics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$21.11
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+29.6%+$57.11
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC East?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$63.21
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$626Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+31.7%+$198.25
Will Seattle beat New England in Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$29.27
Will New England beat Seattle in Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$47.68
Big Game - Winning Conference backed AFC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$108.07
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$126.56
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$52.97
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$126.31
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+33.2%+$5.34
Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+47.3%+$12.46
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+90.7%+$159.21
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+33.4%+$51.57
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$11.98
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$47.75
All 16 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+187.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.3
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.86
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+213%+$232.03
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a 2 seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+887.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+887.2%+$911.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+37%+$52.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.