IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdafaa73301e394d19a14c3f1b220d3e27eee7cc042fe4e694c102ba9292ec49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $852,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,043,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $852,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 0c | 77,940$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 27c | 24,018$6,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,583.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 66c | 20,687$13,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,944.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…1f8abacked No | 32c | 15,334$4,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,953.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 13c | 13,744$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.23 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed No | 33c | 11,169$3,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 80c | 10,376$8,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked No | 5c | 8,888$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,627$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 79c | 7,569$6,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.49 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 32c | 5,661$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0325…16e7backed No | 7c | 5,587$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…0518backed No | 24c | 5,076$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Yes | 74c | 5,048$3,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…eb07backed Yes | 75c | 4,275$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 12c | 4,192$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 19c | 4,030$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd5…0ec9backed Yes | 80c | 3,954$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 7c | 3,942$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 50c | 3,709$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked No | 1c | 3,704$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 18c | 3,688$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.07 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 66c | 3,373$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 3,300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 7c | 3,221$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 18c | 3,196$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 50c | 3,167$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 1c | 3,125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 24c | 3,086$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…04ebbacked No | 15c | 3,000$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,802$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 2,798$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 2,735$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 34c | 2,608$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 78c | 2,542$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…3f1abacked Yes | 71c | 2,505$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed No | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 70c | 2,500$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 32c | 2,310$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 28c | 2,272$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 68c | 2,244$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 38c | 2,155$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…ec50backed Yes | 17c | 2,041$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +187.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 1,937$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 48c | 1,911$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,860$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,845$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…e6b0backed Yes | 77c | 1,825$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked No | 7c | 1,801$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 9c | 1,756$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e4…3962backed Yes | 59c | 1,707$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…21cdbacked Yes | 68c | 1,675$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…cee2backed Yes | 24c | 1,659$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +314.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2e31backed Yes | 68c | 1,647$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +387.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 38c | 1,574$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +420.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 1,528$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 34c | 1,500$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked No | 1c | 1,479$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 6c | 1,440$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 78c | 1,429$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…2d75backed Yes | 67c | 1,364$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked No | 1c | 1,350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…13e7backed Yes | 70c | 1,329$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…cd8dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,328$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +302.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 1,316$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 32c | 1,312$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.01 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 29c | 1,301$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…ff5abacked Yes | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…478dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,243$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…b87dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,222$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…7b4abacked No | 26c | 1,200$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…6be7backed Yes | 29c | 1,169$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 70c | 1,148$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 1,103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 64c | 1,100$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Yes | 66c | 1,065$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 1,056$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 1c | 1,051$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 76c | 1,049$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 80c | 1,029$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…17d5backed Yes | 67c | 1,010$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…ba2abacked No | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 2c | 986.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 7c | 972.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…56eabacked Yes | 68c | 967.67$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed Yes | 79c | 954.17$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 947.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8c…d607backed Yes | 80c | 942.53$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 65c | 915.91$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 1c | 904.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 68c | 893.32$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…021fbacked Yes | 69c | 868.12$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 846.04$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.31 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 40c | 839.96$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.