TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe0dc…3944

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
218
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst Earnings at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.73
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$129
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+525%+$84
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+390.6%+$103.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.9
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$307.56
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$12
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$30.12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$35.5
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$19.47
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$138
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$49.98
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.62
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$49.3
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+88.7%+$44.28
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$36.09
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$79.62
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (January 25)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,779Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.5%+$488.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$69
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT4257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$34
Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+28.2%+$22
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.28
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+434.8%+$158.27
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+36.8%+$91.77
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.5
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+104.3%+$235.83
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$29.34
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Putin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$10.35
50% copper tariff in effect by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+41.8%+$86.72
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.54
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+136.8%+$181.74
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+185.1%+$844
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$6.85
Trump cabinet member out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.4
Federal employee charged as a result of DOGE investigation?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.3%+$17
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.6
US military action against Iran before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Trump visit Israel in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+37%+$13.5
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.2
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177.72
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+67.6%+$132.45
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$489.59
Nord Stream pipeline turned on in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.56
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$81.5
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+224.3%+$264.38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$98
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+49.3%+$16.5
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.09
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$15
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.57
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$306.66
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$534.89
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$24
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+188.6%+$242.14
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+38.7%+$12.55
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+209.1%+$62.92
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+82.5%+$9.04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+35.8%+$80.34
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$7.58
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$161
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.95
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$305.6
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$466.38
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$594.31
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$156.01
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$709Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$190.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,106.7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$92.2
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.97
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,501Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500.59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$614Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$613.71
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$642Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$642.49
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40.44
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on February 23?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+68.3%+$9.4
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 5?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+29.7%+$18.64
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$24.5
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+140.3%+$87.17
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.75
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.6
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$709.55
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$50.94
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$49.6
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 295 and 309 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+26.6%+$88.96
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.2
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$487.69
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,564Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+45%+$704.14
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.5
Canada election called by midnight?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.21
Will average US gas price hit $3.50 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.5
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+25.4%+$24.3
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+90.4%+$18.07
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.77
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+100%+$120
ECB rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$151.21
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$331.3
Will the ECB announce no change at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$92.8
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$9.9
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.75
Fed rate cut by June meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$20
Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$11.7
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+47.1%+$16
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+61.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+174.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+84.7%+$40.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Matteo Berrettini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$104.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 290-310m views on September 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT+38%+$55.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.