NFL · resolved market
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb07dfa07725b6470b89f73c69d382118785c7592e830613b1f1f5797802b9f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 77c | 8,638$6,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.01 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 17c | 4,734$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.79 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 4,585$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.49 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 15c | 4,572$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 15c | 2,837$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.06 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,527$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 24c | 1,310$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.83 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 989.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 825.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 10c | 802.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 73c | 798.31$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes | 9c | 746$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 11c | 668$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 25c | 660$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 555$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 550$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 499.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea4…eeeabacked Yes | 25c | 454.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 25c | 449$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…b2dcbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 8c | 395$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 16c | 301$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 15c | 285.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 232.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 73c | 210$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a2…4123backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…e433backed Yes | 28c | 180.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 9c | 174$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +404.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…5025backed Yes | 9c | 169.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 22c | 159$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…f5f4backed Yes | 15c | 144$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 115.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 78c | 104.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…1731backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 24c | 63.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…442abacked No | 70c | 59.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked No | 76c | 55.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…f7f2backed No | 77c | 48.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…4dc4backed Yes | 28c | 36.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 76c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.