NFL · resolved market
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x616bfc7d428322b6ddfeabf49cbb3f8c980bf00c2616116e0c4a5f7ebe56841c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 9c | 10,430$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 26c | 8,435$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 76c | 7,590$5,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed No | 5c | 7,013$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 35c | 4,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 3,957$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 3,192$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…24f5backed Yes | 74c | 2,695$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 2,053$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 65 | 0%0 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 15c | 1,843$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.53 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…425dbacked No | 3c | 1,618$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 4c | 1,595$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 47c | 1,595$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.67 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 44c | 1,333$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.71 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 64c | 1,188$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed No | 2c | 1,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 41c | 1,080$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.29 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 52c | 945.44$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.18 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked No | 3c | 929.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c8…b0dcbacked No | 14c | 709.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed No | 47c | 678.93$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 70c | 599.98$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.98 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 68c | 501.12$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 66c | 400$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.45 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 7c | 367.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…785ebacked Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked No | 14c | 318.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 29c | 316$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 292.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 270$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 61c | 247.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bfedbacked No | 79c | 240$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 50c | 224.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 75c | 207.62$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 198$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…1652backed No | 11c | 185.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 64c | 170.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 44c | 166$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 45c | 164.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea4…eeeabacked Yes | 48c | 158.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked Yes | 29c | 132.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 12c | 118$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked No | 14c | 108.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 56c | 102.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…b81bbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 40c | 99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed No | 55c | 90.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…91d6backed Yes | 47c | 85.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 61c | 82.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 49c | 81.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 56c | 80.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 49c | 77.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 48c | 71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked Yes | 23c | 65.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 47c | 65.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 25c | 58.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…1731backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 61c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…a0c7backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…8b76backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 31.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 30.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…ce8abacked Yes | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.