TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$952,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$996,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $952,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7acd…3cc9backed Yes8c107,493$8,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,567.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…2283backed Yes0c98,260$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x464f…0b95backed Yes1c90,054$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x284c…7b30backed Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes3c58,487$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.43175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e16…84d7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes0c18,037$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.041070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c16,306$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.231508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff27…1a68backed Yes0c13,463$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes7c10,387$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.115530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa1…b59ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5602…388dbacked Yes11c8,186$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes7c6,069$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.6631543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes7c5,008$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.29136.3%33 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b86…0311backed Yes9c4,420$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes5c3,126$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.48119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6e…6ef6backed Yes11c3,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes7c2,934$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.75750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes8c2,414$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.142532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes5c2,242$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.851822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf65…45d7backed Yes15c1,936$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes13c1,741$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.381428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ca…5830backed Yes8c1,183$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002825%7 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed Yes13c1,161$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes9c1,143$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.392227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92fa…b181backed Yes1c1,121$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes13c1,047$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.958951.7%46 W · 43 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaac1…93c7backed Yes10c1,032$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.08560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7012138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes8c931$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.648847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes12c810$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.632347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes3c601.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes6c600$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed Yes10c580$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes9c562.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0180%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes2c541.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdc…4958backed Yes10c525.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes10c521.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20270%0 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes11c468.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2800…4dd0backed Yes55c456.02$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb53…709dbacked Yes6c423.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.767938%30 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes6c347.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7431439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3021…a229backed Yes6c321.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6766…0d0dbacked Yes10c312.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes37c276$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes10c260.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2559453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes14c251.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.228337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No75c251.23$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8118744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes6c249$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.382825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee5…1731backed Yes10c241.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes8c234.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.082623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes21c231.84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.59340%0 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5305…8de9backed Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes29c215.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6113428.4%38 W · 96 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No25c204.15$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.91450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+118.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes6c202.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.215332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes9c162$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.584632.6%15 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.951650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32b…94cabacked Yes20c147.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes9c144$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9615044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32fe…091ebacked Yes9c141.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3378…ae62backed Yes10c130.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…e844backed Yes8c128.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x254f…7b31backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa749…056bbacked Yes11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No57c116.28$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5d…5598backed Yes26c115.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f49…6a8abacked Yes11c90.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes29c71.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6231032.6%101 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x844b…0a51backed Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.32123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe877…147dbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No78c14.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.112239.3%48 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.