TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,728 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc412…592dbacked Yes3c1,356$41 inLost-$40.675158.8%30 W · 21 L+9.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes6c799.99$48 inLost-$4860%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes22c515.95$112 inLost-$112.354632.6%15 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No71c454.45$321 inWon+$133.481668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes14c346.05$50 inLost-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7793…ddaebacked Yes16c344.38$55 inLost-$55.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e3…5ac2backed Yes16c314.06$50 inLost-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732d…2787backed Yes22c200$44 inLost-$44825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes24c177$42 inLost-$42.024434.1%15 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb53…709dbacked Yes16c156.25$25 inLost-$25119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15a5…0c45backed No80c130.1$104 inWon+$26.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c103.08$76 inWon+$27.1231439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Yes32c100$32 inLost-$326435.9%23 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes18c100$18 inLost-$18.21631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8b…0c13backed Yes15c100$15 inLost-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b8…bfd9backed Yes27c85.19$23 inLost-$23616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-70.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No77c79$61 inWon+$17.783171%22 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes46c65.22$30 inLost-$3013428.4%38 W · 96 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0e…e8fabacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f89…f0ebbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$1080%0 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes29c60.99$18 inLost-$17.882846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes31c50$16 inLost-$15.52821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa749…056bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1460…b3ddbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes26c40$10 inLost-$10.27718.2%14 W · 63 L-11.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x569e…67dbbacked No73c25$18 inWon+$6.751752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.