NFL · resolved market
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c112018dcd30a8e6ea5f63edb25dd6b3019756a387439a41ab97447d262b084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a5…0c45backed Yes | 17c | 10,029$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 9c | 3,880$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.97 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,017$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…7948backed Yes | 10c | 882$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 13c | 844$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 9c | 819$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 651.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…5253backed Yes | 9c | 598.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 11c | 499.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 11c | 423.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b4…1d18backed Yes | 9c | 331.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 14c | 192.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 16c | 180.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 7c | 172$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…17ccbacked Yes | 12c | 165.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 77c | 120.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…092dbacked Yes | 10c | 118$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 10c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked Yes | 12c | 108.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…dbedbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…d447backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 79c | 43.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Ripple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Solana run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.