TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will xAi/X run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,045 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes7c3,724$255 inLost-$255.285530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes10c3,119$318 inLost-$317.89166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes10c2,501$241 inLost-$240.9231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes8c2,000$152 inLost-$152.263551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c1,816$76 inLost-$76.441508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed Yes5c1,628$77 inLost-$77.02137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340f…3cf5backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$502330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9360…96d5backed Yes7c669.99$45 inLost-$45.15944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+97.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes3c668$22 inLost-$21.9711837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes28c500$142 inLost-$141.52218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes4c400$15 inLost-$155158.8%30 W · 21 L+9.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes6c396$26 inLost-$25.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes8c377.04$30 inLost-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes7c355$24 inLost-$23.9312138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes7c311$22 inLost-$21.7270%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed Yes10c293$30 inLost-$30.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x991f…aa6cbacked Yes9c278.24$25 inLost-$24.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes7c217.39$15 inLost-$15340%0 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes9c199.58$17 inLost-$17.1628151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Yes14c195$27 inLost-$27.381250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Yes17c117.76$20 inLost-$2018843.1%81 W · 107 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x394e…c26abacked Yes28c70.42$20 inLost-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+54.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes25c60.08$15 inLost-$151010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes24c60$14 inLost-$14.1732347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3507…475abacked Yes20c50.71$10 inLost-$10771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No70c20$14 inWon+$6475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.