TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,958,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,074,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,958,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7acd…3cc9backed Yes17c303,249$52,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,173.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…2283backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes1c142,195$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.52119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x464f…0b95backed Yes0c115,336$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf65…45d7backed Yes1c52,057$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.02520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb0…69d2backed Yes0c39,310$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa714…4ff3backed Yes0c36,890$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1416…c996backed Yes0c36,530$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff27…1a68backed Yes0c33,910$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe425…6155backed Yes1c32,559$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No57c29,858$17,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,729.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No56c27,580$15,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,094.432035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x023a…4fbcbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96d…e809backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c1…0df7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e16…84d7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…7493backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes0c19,999$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.742944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes0c15,490$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.98333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes8c14,599$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.971508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes44c12,436$5,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,523.235530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No73c11,406$8,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.483154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+135.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes0c11,169$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5305…8de9backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No49c10,638$5,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,411.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes49c10,140$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.74166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-90.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe173…13ddbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0f…7037backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0992…2a08backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7b…faadbacked Yes1c8,256$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes48c7,407$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,563.131543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No61c7,185$4,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.85276.9%40 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No43c5,147$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,954.711668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7487…6f2dbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No54c4,862$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.011450%7 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+630%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No70c4,015$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes25c3,557$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes0c3,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7270%0 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes4c3,396$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x850d…aae1backed Yes51c3,201$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes7c3,103$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.57385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed No48c3,021$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x018d…7f0abacked No36c2,776$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.88785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+83.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1726…3986backed Yes2c2,768$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes58c2,431$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.483551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab7…3290backed Yes14c2,365$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.981323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes1c2,355$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.814427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes54c2,309$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.7332347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes47c2,300$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08916226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No75c2,254$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.271369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes51c2,232$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.11323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes45c2,111$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.22218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes25c2,023$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.68742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6906…9cbdbacked Yes40c1,959$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.38333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No46c1,901$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.711338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes48c1,647$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.0748847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes3c1,625$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.485750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes48c1,529$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.982737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes47c1,500$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75010334%35 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes19c1,404$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.915158.8%30 W · 21 L+9.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3e6e…6ef6backed No37c1,400$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes44c1,105$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1103…4ef1backed Yes3c1,096$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes2c1,045$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.959136.3%33 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd3…ef31backed Yes6c1,003$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed Yes54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes36c905.22$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.512623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes53c827.49$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7f…bf9abacked No54c805.55$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.8450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x610a…5f72backed Yes5c691.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes7c658.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.211861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed Yes3c650.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes46c625$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.39825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f5…07f1backed Yes3c625$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes54c617.73$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.521010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0d6…c35fbacked Yes3c608.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes59c557.88$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.415832.8%19 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8b9…1921backed Yes29c545.8$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed No40c544$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.382454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No72c529.91$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.089181.3%74 W · 17 L+15.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes62c523.99$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.893976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes53c519$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3529439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes37c513.7$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.628151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes41c485$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.751822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…78d9backed Yes23c480.4$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed No66c454.6$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.64546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes43c454$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No38c450.04$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.293925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No46c448.76$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes16c440.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No36c438.41$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.585552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x845d…620fbacked Yes33c431.64$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick32cpaid-79.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes34c425.46$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.968958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed No54c424.89$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.447051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed No66c386.3$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No56c362.72$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7252828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes43c355.36$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4514342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.