TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcaab…24dd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
326
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Music, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Music at 58 out of 100; worst F1 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT8834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 88 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,235Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$1,261.16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$6,230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+38%+$2,370.19
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,824Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,824.35
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$862Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+132.1%+$1,138.31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$945Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$555
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$110
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,783Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+45.8%+$1,275.03
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,096Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$604
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$5,946Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,945.77
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$460
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+520.4%+$1,678.11
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.99
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+48.3%+$101.78
Showing 25 of 88 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19,505Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,504.91
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.59
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$51.68
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$310
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.86
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$579.98
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.5
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,059Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,058.78
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,901Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,901.13
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$5,857Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$1,475.53
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$167.59
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$90.3
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+26.6%+$42
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.92
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.25
France debt downgrade by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+36.6%+$61.89
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.35
Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$516.34
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$232
Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$190.2
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2548%12 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$155.13
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$46.97
US forces in Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$237.2
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$125
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$367
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$58.55
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$138.59
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+33.3%+$25
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$90
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+492.2%+$1,316.83
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.17
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$74
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$95.13
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+557.2%+$3,727.72
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.5
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+29.2%+$91.04
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.46
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,396Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+45.8%+$639.45
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+719.7%+$439
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.44
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$281.32
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.04
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$287
All 25 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+321.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+8,274.4%+$1,049.81
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+68%+$209.01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 21?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.49
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$790
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$189.91
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$700
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,063Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+56%+$595.4
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$826Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$826.13
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.19
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$246.34
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.9
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.92
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.29
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.34
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,018.57
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65.22
Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$68.94
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.4%+$154.06
Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+26.4%+$50.52
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$27,946Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$7,032.91
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,689.14
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$792.07
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$3,106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,105.96
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,429Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,429.3
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$125.79
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$183.84
Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71.51
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$67.48
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22.81
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$860
Fed rate cut by September meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$501.67
Will three people dissent the Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.71
Will four or more people dissent the Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+155.8%+$77.91
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 23 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
F1 — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43.92
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30.2
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,087Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+36.8%+$1,503.69
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$374.92
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+158.7%+$920.62
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30.77
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.74
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$287.43
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$87
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish in 3rd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$395.58
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$82
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$194
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$126
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.45
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST+93.5%+$112.19
Will Carlos Sainz win the Mexico City Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
Will Charles Leclerc win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT+100%+$50
Will Lando Norris win the British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2024, EDT+76.1%+$47.38
All 20 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,545Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$455
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Kamil Majchrzakbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+32.6%+$245.63
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Sheltonbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+58.7%+$59.2
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+42.9%+$150
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+61%+$98.03
Open de Moselle: Vitaliy Sachko vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$134
Open de Moselle: Hugo Gaston vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+300%+$375
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$234
Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritzbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+57.2%+$284.25
US Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Holger Runebacked Rune · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$52
US Open: Cameron Norrie vs Sebastian Kordabacked Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.5
ATP Cincinnati - Popyrin vs. Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$39
ATP Washington D.C – Medvedev vs. Moutetbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$485.5
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) backed Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+189.7%+$445.16
Wimbledon: Cobolli vs. Djokovic backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22
All 16 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$240
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+212.5%+$340
UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Ziam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+72.5%+$210.13
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+37%+$53.99
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$72
UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Nickal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+44.9%+$62
Volkov vs. Almeidabacked Almeida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$327
Oliveira vs. Gamrotbacked Gamrot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$265
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralhobacked Imavov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+100%+$250
UFC Fight Night: Bukauskas vs. Craig backed Bukauskas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+34.4%+$64
UFC Fight Night: Gomis vs. Ruchałabacked Gomis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$85.28
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acostabacked Pavlovich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$62
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$134
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page backed Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.79
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+141.1%+$334.62
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+41.7%+$17.85
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.93
OpenAI acquired in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.15
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+809.1%+$445
OpenAI browser by October 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.01
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$488.97
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+50%+$191.16
All 11 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.31
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.62
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$4,560Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.4%+$2,433.39
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,232Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26%+$839.21
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$9,497Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.7%+$3,960.63
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.39
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.09
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$213.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,538Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,538.3
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+109.4%+$261.25
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.5
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.43
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$101
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$765Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$765.31
Will Italy win on 2025-11-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+98%+$49.48
Will France win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$264
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$840Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+138.2%+$1,160.24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$465
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.8
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+1,165.8%+$499.01
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.8
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$216
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+74.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+46.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$889Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$888.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+29.4%+$58.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$217.89
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.