Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x628e335a6cbec4b2dbcc89482fe594cb91f273318479e6930542d3cffc02f68f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $946,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,027,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $946,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 585 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 7c | 31,297$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.99 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 70c | 28,503$20,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,497.24 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 8c | 20,000$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.05 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323a…876fbacked No | 57c | 19,500$11,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,021.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 36c | 18,978$6,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,808.64 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b665backed No | 15c | 16,285$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked No | 5c | 14,321$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.07 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 3c | 13,353$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.94 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 27c | 12,810$3,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,342.55 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 33c | 12,380$4,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,351.39 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 33c | 11,814$3,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,944.67 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 75c | 11,700$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900.34 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 73c | 10,508$7,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,712.79 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…ac60backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 8c | 8,353$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.63 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 5c | 8,140$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.36 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 29c | 7,886$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,623.54 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 16c | 6,898$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.19 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 17c | 6,726$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.95 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 71c | 6,430$4,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.3 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 76c | 6,000$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 29c | 5,969$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,244.6 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…6acfbacked No | 16c | 5,609$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Yes | 77c | 4,711$3,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed No | 12c | 4,583$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.07 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed No | 3c | 4,505$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 4,422$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.45 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 30c | 4,324$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,041.92 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 5c | 4,209$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked No | 62c | 4,148$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,552.9 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…8b11backed No | 73c | 4,022$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…0e8bbacked No | 5c | 4,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 68c | 3,948$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.75 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 3,946$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 44c | 3,778$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.62 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 42c | 3,636$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.3 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 6c | 3,587$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.75 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…c312backed No | 6c | 3,409$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 10c | 3,352$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.81 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 44c | 3,250$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.15 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 30c | 3,161$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.29 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked No | 6c | 3,084$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 28c | 3,041$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.88 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 30c | 3,025$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.5 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 5c | 2,927$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.94 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…bcd8backed No | 24c | 2,850$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…7393backed No | 15c | 2,723$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.82 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94e…f946backed No | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 37c | 2,480$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.16 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 17c | 2,465$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.52 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 48c | 2,416$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.62 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 8c | 2,222$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…672ebacked No | 69c | 2,176$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 50c | 2,160$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.53 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…8fb2backed No | 6c | 2,140$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…0100backed No | 50c | 2,112$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.82 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…8559backed No | 9c | 2,111$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 2,105$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.78 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1989…e0d3backed Yes | 27c | 2,075$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…3423backed Yes | 76c | 2,058$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 4c | 2,048$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…e690backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed No | 68c | 1,986$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.07 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 30c | 1,965$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.66 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…06f9backed No | 20c | 1,961$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 5c | 1,941$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 54c | 1,813$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.73 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 80c | 1,807$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.43 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 44c | 1,806$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.99 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2570…f79cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,660$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…f67dbacked No | 5c | 1,625$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…6e7bbacked No | 61c | 1,597$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 33c | 1,528$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked No | 60c | 1,526$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x281b…9428backed No | 7c | 1,512$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked No | 65c | 1,499$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605f…6b3fbacked No | 7c | 1,497$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…35d8backed Yes | 78c | 1,450$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed Yes | 76c | 1,400$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e3…daa6backed No | 13c | 1,400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 24cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,389$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.89 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…5f9cbacked No | 75c | 1,377$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 52c | 1,350$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…76d1backed No | 25c | 1,337$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.97 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked No | 60c | 1,334$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.35 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 17c | 1,310$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.39 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…8b40backed Yes | 37c | 1,225$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.76 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 14c | 1,200$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 5c | 1,189$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…8aa6backed No | 8c | 1,096$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d79bbacked No | 9c | 1,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…5bfabacked Yes | 20c | 1,059$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.87 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 58c | 1,057$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.15 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 56c | 1,054$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.15 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e6…6168backed No | 21c | 1,050$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,050$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.83 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +7.0wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +463%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 58c | 1,046$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.49 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 31c | 1,037$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.43 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…4fbcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,029$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.