Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d2e51db07df110815d661d7181aa40ba0166f728182de7af48e24f804c5893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 2c | 6,162$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 5c | 2,693$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…03d9backed No | 1c | 2,571$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 8c | 2,209$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 14c | 1,332$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…c2b4backed No | 4c | 1,258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3616…850ebacked No | 13c | 1,141$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226e…e8ecbacked No | 1c | 993.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 3c | 654.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 5c | 618.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…5821backed No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…4ce9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 18c | 469.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed No | 4c | 464.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 4c | 450.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed No | 3c | 439.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe236…cfcdbacked No | 6c | 336.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked No | 4c | 286$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…bab2backed No | 4c | 254.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 7c | 225.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 7c | 221$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf881…3c5dbacked No | 9c | 218.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +253.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 78c | 214.31$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…5b38backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…470bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…de56backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +696%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac6…299dbacked No | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e88…ea4bbacked No | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…c9fcbacked No | 9c | 110.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…296abacked No | 19c | 103.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b2a6backed No | 10c | 100.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…d4b6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…db2ebacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 13c | 80.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 79c | 36.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.