TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$587,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$420,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $587,177 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d05…6320backed No2c67,713$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.0610417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6bd4…ed58backed No3c40,712$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7432…c16abacked No2c27,530$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.991330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0020…16b9backed No2c24,166$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-73.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked No2c24,127$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No2c21,058$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8517414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206543.1%28 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No7c16,358$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.814341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No8c13,705$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.9617737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No0c12,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218616.3%14 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed No0c11,360$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.66633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+95.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No3c11,184$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.8435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed No20c10,983$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.0111842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No7c10,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75026429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed No1c9,615$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.811315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-76.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed No2c9,552$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002512%3 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+405.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa313…eb44backed No17c7,186$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.892268.2%15 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+235.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed No6c6,952$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2570…f79cbacked No9c5,264$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.21520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No4c4,331$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.473103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8790…60c2backed No7c3,810$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.55313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-4.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No1c3,280$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7918338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed No5c3,138$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1484647.8%22 W · 24 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x152e…cc3dbacked No13c2,833$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.932619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b76…6984backed No1c2,700$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.04160%0 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec75…c0efbacked No10c2,610$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+276%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No17c2,565$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.156934.8%24 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e3f…9ed2backed No9c2,450$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.53718.9%7 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3616…850ebacked No7c2,445$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-71.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No6c2,373$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3311320.4%23 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60d5…7839backed No5c2,355$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No6c2,224$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.184938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf1…6cdabacked No1c2,009$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed No1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2224712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x884a…aa34backed No3c1,861$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.345315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a6…a0afbacked No8c1,851$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-87.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed Yes80c1,768$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.614327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e9…6f8fbacked No10c1,594$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.681421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b77…27cdbacked No10c1,505$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No10c1,494$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.49437%3 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed No4c1,493$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked No7c1,490$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.52445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No7c1,395$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1421831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e06…9754backed No2c1,239$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81520%3 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+522.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…79bdbacked No8c1,208$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+455.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No3c1,164$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No21c1,129$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.714944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc574…b9dabacked No4c1,125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1347…cb49backed No9c1,112$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-65.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae7a…dfa8backed No9c1,101$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8923…1f6dbacked No9c1,083$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2317934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4e…2e3ebacked No3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-87%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No4c999.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404327.9%12 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0368…e741backed No8c966.11$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No14c920.61$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.895964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed No1c910$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-81.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked No11c901.24$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.823815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid+31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5af5…eb78backed No7c871.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1151…c9abbacked No15c856.36$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.51723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10fc…9606backed No7c800$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.85058%29 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6056…c27cbacked No5c800$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.82740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No6c783.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3621631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817a…389ebacked No31c775.97$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…6ea3backed No12c761.2$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No6c716.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4634…d158backed No10c708.77$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No17c681.32$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.239031.1%28 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd28c…2c1ebacked No5c674.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed No4c650$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No3c611.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.68744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf3c…3648backed No4c610$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed No8c600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa497…0806backed No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2a…06a2backed No4c544.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.291625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec9…58e6backed No8c528.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e5…e6adbacked No8c505.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…0af8backed No10c504.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…d06fbacked No19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956625.8%17 W · 49 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d3…76d1backed No3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No13c499.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.516231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1e…2f7bbacked No8c461.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f1…1475backed No22c460.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+583.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a3…ea15backed No8c460$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.82445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No12c460$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.128929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked No18c450$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803450%17 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No10c449.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1618640.9%76 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x135c…85e8backed No9c439.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.638333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8390…d0efbacked No5c428.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156f…ce71backed No2c406.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed No4c403.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0910426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked No9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed No5c400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.84293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x605f…6b3fbacked No25c394.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a7…046cbacked No11c392.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b9…5afebacked No5c385.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed No9c383.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357131%22 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.