TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7e2a…06a2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Commodities, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 55 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.64
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.85
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$131.94
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+119%+$81.49
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.29
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.46
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$611Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$611.24
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.97
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+340.5%+$77.3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+42.4%+$27.05
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$205.81
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$305.91
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$152.08
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$145.72
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.15
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$459.57
Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+90.1%+$10.33
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.1
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 8-11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.76
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.83
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$171.78
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$53.09
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$23.87
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$238.81
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+89.6%+$232.72
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+49.2%+$295.28
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$473.99
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+159.5%+$101.48
All 15 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.88
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.25
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.36
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.26
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.38
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.44
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+132.2%+$104.8
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+36.5%+$33.71
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.04
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.2
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.93
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+35.7%+$71.41
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.75
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+45.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$154.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.