Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5c6894dbb404ba011d7841da5a093bcb120e19c1978ea4d7b795be36129cc68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 4c | 11,280$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.87 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 8,657$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.37 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 2c | 4,573$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,637$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.47 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 43c | 2,545$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.03 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 30c | 2,466$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.32 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 2,252$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.51 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…c645backed No | 59c | 1,694$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,512$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.62 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 4c | 1,406$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4996…8e69backed Yes | 41c | 1,251$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed Yes | 41c | 1,234$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 16c | 1,056$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 39c | 879.14$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 863.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 857.26$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.73 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 10c | 852.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 797.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 22c | 746.72$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…5acfbacked Yes | 10c | 709.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 690.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070b…90c1backed Yes | 15c | 639$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…4a61backed Yes | 16c | 638.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…f6bfbacked Yes | 14c | 618$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…7776backed Yes | 14c | 607$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 4c | 579.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c8…044abacked Yes | 15c | 579$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 39c | 574.64$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 550.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 61c | 537.29$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.74 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…692bbacked Yes | 10c | 517.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…81b8backed Yes | 3c | 491.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x446a…2d7dbacked Yes | 14c | 471$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…6f50backed Yes | 14c | 466$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 443.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…f07fbacked Yes | 41c | 443$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…d88abacked No | 75c | 413.04$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 34c | 389.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 19c | 379.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 61c | 375$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…f970backed No | 74c | 372.97$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 21c | 356.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 352.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 39c | 344.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 339.19$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 3c | 332.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 5c | 330.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…a77ebacked Yes | 3c | 312.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…4244backed Yes | 39c | 283.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 32c | 271.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 268.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9062backed Yes | 40c | 263.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…7277backed No | 78c | 257.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked Yes | 17c | 255.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Yes | 25c | 247.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 243.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 241.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed Yes | 9c | 233.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…ca05backed Yes | 15c | 205.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…9279backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 196.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 25c | 190.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…3c03backed Yes | 39c | 189.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 28c | 185.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 61c | 177.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed No | 58c | 171.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 170.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 28c | 167.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 50c | 167.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ef…fe3abacked No | 76c | 161.76$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee0…2fc9backed Yes | 17c | 160.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 23c | 153.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…7487backed Yes | 19c | 151.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 11c | 148.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 39c | 147.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 29c | 134.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…fb85backed No | 74c | 134$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…7159backed Yes | 44c | 127.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…ad32backed Yes | 16c | 127.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 33c | 123.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…d889backed Yes | 39c | 122$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…be37backed Yes | 10c | 117.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 23c | 110.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 105.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…f766backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed No | 72c | 99.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked No | 71c | 89.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…14d2backed No | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 25c | 79.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef2…d6acbacked Yes | 56c | 71.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 8-11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.