Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee9f7df7c8ce955d336d9b6d99abb53e49447f9495f54b7d0c3fd90501544614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 7c | 11,812$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.79 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 7,061$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.3 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 4,015$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.72 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 12c | 3,871$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.36 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,798$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.27 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,640$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.09 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 6c | 3,015$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,603$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 9c | 2,541$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.43 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 26c | 2,517$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 79c | 2,272$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.08 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 32c | 2,186$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.45 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…1075backed Yes | 19c | 2,038$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 1,985$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.96 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…61b6backed No | 74c | 1,873$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…7159backed Yes | 10c | 1,744$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 29c | 1,727$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 1,595$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 12c | 1,576$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.9 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,457$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 13c | 1,379$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 16c | 1,357$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 1,312$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 80c | 1,246$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 78c | 1,215$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,173$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 75c | 1,090$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.96 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 1,056$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…8a9abacked Yes | 8c | 996$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b9…65a5backed Yes | 8c | 983$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…a7b9backed Yes | 9c | 978$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…acecbacked Yes | 7c | 971$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 7c | 959.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed Yes | 22c | 923.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…7d09backed Yes | 8c | 921.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 919.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…1cc8backed Yes | 7c | 907$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa242…e339backed Yes | 9c | 906$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…cc21backed Yes | 7c | 897$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…a9e5backed Yes | 8c | 879$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…f3d5backed Yes | 10c | 865$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 21c | 791.6$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9a…4215backed Yes | 6c | 783$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…3f83backed Yes | 7c | 783$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc637…ab8fbacked Yes | 7c | 762$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 761.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446a…2d7dbacked Yes | 15c | 716$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…cb78backed Yes | 31c | 632.14$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 617.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 599.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 77c | 599.95$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…c134backed Yes | 15c | 580.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 22c | 565.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 67c | 489.75$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 482.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…7776backed Yes | 14c | 477$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 454.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed Yes | 16c | 446.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 5c | 443.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 441.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 441.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 437.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 436.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Yes | 22c | 431.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 21c | 422.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 76c | 419.94$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…692bbacked Yes | 13c | 418.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837a…77e1backed Yes | 7c | 417.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 4c | 415$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 5c | 405.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 402$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…4d7fbacked Yes | 22c | 400$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6334backed Yes | 22c | 397.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…9552backed Yes | 23c | 389.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 69c | 378.1$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 375.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 24c | 373.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…5acfbacked Yes | 10c | 367.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 357.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 17c | 356.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 22c | 345.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb9…47b0backed Yes | 22c | 331.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 3c | 329$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 80c | 313$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 22c | 307.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 299.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 289.37$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 62c | 280.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…3fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 279.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Yes | 15c | 273.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 12c | 268.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…571abacked No | 79c | 253.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 22c | 238.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 75c | 232.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed Yes | 10c | 230.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…c895backed Yes | 10c | 203.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…7825backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 8-11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.