Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x585aa78a05bd6c9139af09790550b420e900da53e92d1d1b355453c1ee495c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,128,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,139,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,128,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba10…cf10backed No | 42c | 109,700$46,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,512.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…f0a2backed No | 43c | 98,500$42,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,532.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…b553backed No | 29c | 61,400$17,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,767.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 80c | 52,254$41,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,738.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ef…9af8backed No | 32c | 50,850$16,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,424.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…fe76backed Yes | 57c | 36,100$20,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,451.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c73…fbfbbacked Yes | 57c | 35,900$20,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,580.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 23c | 35,590$8,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,416.97 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f7…c39dbacked Yes | 58c | 31,000$17,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d9…4415backed Yes | 58c | 29,700$17,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,592.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9506backed Yes | 58c | 28,000$16,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,872 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf3…4e4fbacked Yes | 57c | 26,500$14,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,501 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77a…2f08backed Yes | 68c | 26,100$17,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,430.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122d…8cd2backed Yes | 68c | 24,750$16,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,994.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…e09fbacked Yes | 71c | 23,800$16,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,854.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…5ebbbacked Yes | 71c | 22,000$15,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,336 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 41c | 21,672$8,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,778.39 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…f84bbacked Yes | 58c | 21,000$12,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,904 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 44c | 18,121$7,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,968 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 55c | 12,693$6,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,704.3 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 51c | 11,469$5,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,877.03 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…9cbcbacked Yes | 71c | 9,000$6,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 58c | 8,494$4,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.8 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 54c | 7,916$4,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,276.25 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 42c | 6,826$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,933.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8671…d4b7backed No | 62c | 6,712$4,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…20babacked Yes | 71c | 6,600$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…5635backed Yes | 56c | 5,814$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ce…16babacked Yes | 70c | 5,678$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…a551backed No | 36c | 5,458$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 72c | 4,720$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 50c | 3,613$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.51 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 72c | 3,589$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.57 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 27c | 3,539$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 67c | 3,349$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 70c | 3,239$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.55 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 29c | 3,196$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.93 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 12c | 2,906$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542.81 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 74c | 2,838$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.27 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…42dcbacked Yes | 32c | 2,792$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 45c | 2,588$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 54c | 2,390$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.85 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 78c | 2,220$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 51c | 2,124$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 1,979$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.49 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…052cbacked No | 43c | 1,881$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…b05dbacked No | 62c | 1,803$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 41c | 1,692$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 67c | 1,679$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…3901backed No | 9c | 1,600$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes | 68c | 1,464$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 18c | 1,447$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.29 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 51c | 1,428$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 78c | 1,407$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 63c | 1,385$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 43c | 1,374$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 38c | 1,332$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 17c | 1,323$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…afa8backed No | 50c | 1,296$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 1,197$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.96 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,100$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.51 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…9f99backed Yes | 51c | 1,100$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 51c | 1,085$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 68c | 1,044$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 36c | 1,040$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…2b23backed No | 1c | 1,035$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 64c | 999.99$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.99 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 52c | 957.58$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 953.15$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.98 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed No | 41c | 947.97$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…ac23backed Yes | 38c | 939$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…5bffbacked No | 35c | 920.44$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked No | 64c | 891.99$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked No | 60c | 891.35$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 56c | 867.78$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.09 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…20e1backed Yes | 38c | 864$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 11c | 842.08$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.81 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 71c | 804.78$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 69c | 770.38$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.3 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…5acfbacked Yes | 42c | 749.58$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 46c | 746.76$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.03 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 28c | 743.29$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 42c | 731.56$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.39 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…9e4ebacked No | 29c | 729.51$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 50c | 726.79$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…be37backed Yes | 62c | 709.98$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…18e3backed Yes | 10c | 706.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b8…96e5backed Yes | 9c | 706.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 65c | 677$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.51 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 26c | 662.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.77 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 69c | 610.24$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 59c | 608.08$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.55 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…cfbdbacked No | 71c | 600$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 65c | 599.98$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.49 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…9fb8backed Yes | 57c | 595.36$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 50c | 577.22$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.18 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 20-23, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between March 8-11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.