TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeeb9…6f7a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
176
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT5653.6%30 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,554Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$641.4
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,021Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$1,120.06
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,866Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$565.06
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.65
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.94
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$38.71
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$7,096Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$3,344.23
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$42.64
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,619Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,618.83
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+95.9%+$67.83
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.03
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.83
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$54.2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$51.93
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,258.56
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+74.4%+$42.71
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.66
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.62
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,861Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$861.48
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.38
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$34.91
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.41
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$23.56
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,911Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,910.5
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT4440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$9,448Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$2,394.47
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,320Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$1,196.42
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,501Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$883.79
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$57.2
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.93
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+210.7%+$96.71
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.99
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.99
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$63.21
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.97
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.47
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+71.5%+$10.84
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.68
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.09
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.27
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+292.9%+$76.6
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+103.8%+$118.09
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$336.08
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.65
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+85.8%+$63.39
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.12
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$24.03
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.87
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,266Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$551.53
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$432.71
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.53
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$50.1
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+100.8%+$145.59
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$27.6
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.44
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,258.85
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.38
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$59.28
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.14
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$74.09
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$390.98
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$77
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.77
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.8
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$99.83
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.34
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.72
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+304.4%+$70.28
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.26
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+289.6%+$33.44
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.95
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+52.8%+$9.79
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.29
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,092Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,091.59
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$46.05
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$8.8
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+55%+$21.3
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.9
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$19.2
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+85.7%+$22.61
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.39
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+43.9%+$6.1
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.99
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+103.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+1,205.1%+$836.68
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.85
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.97
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$178.2
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.09
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.22
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+37%+$21.6
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,646Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,646.02
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.15
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+58.7%+$127.03
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+385.9%+$199.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.