Commodities · resolved market
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c4e41b63d9026d085966fdaf1babd8548f56f0098271479f70831b60fd7fac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 4c | 8,001$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.47 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 61c | 6,242$3,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.07 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,001$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.96 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 36c | 4,503$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 76c | 3,624$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 22c | 3,585$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.58 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…a4afbacked Yes | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 1,711$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.26 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 23c | 1,557$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.33 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,449$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 35c | 1,319$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 13c | 1,070$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 40c | 999.99$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 38c | 939.99$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 56c | 870$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 40c | 867.43$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 17c | 774.11$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 714.09$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.24 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 12c | 614.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 604$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 26c | 571.4$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 32c | 556.94$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 540.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 479.29$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 66c | 460$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Yes | 12c | 460$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 432.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked Yes | 27c | 432.46$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2236…6e0cbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 23c | 409.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 39c | 406$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.34 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 39c | 399.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 397.34$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 28c | 390.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…a34ebacked Yes | 14c | 388.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 40c | 375.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed Yes | 21c | 350.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 337.24$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed No | 63c | 333$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 63c | 303.86$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 18c | 275.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…6d3cbacked No | 67c | 271.8$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 26c | 270$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 25c | 268.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 256.23$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 29c | 246.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…7367backed No | 61c | 244.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…4bc2backed Yes | 39c | 240$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 39c | 237.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 65c | 220$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed No | 63c | 219.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 13c | 210.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…5d2cbacked No | 60c | 196$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…b898backed Yes | 13c | 186.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…f074backed Yes | 27c | 185.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed No | 63c | 174.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 171.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 170.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Yes | 9c | 167.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed No | 62c | 164.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 34c | 153.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…5063backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…1f2ebacked Yes | 25c | 131$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 130.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…1e09backed Yes | 25c | 128$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 127.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153c…3759backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 119.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf85d…371abacked Yes | 23c | 119$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 26c | 117.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 114.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 60c | 113.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd861…0ef9backed Yes | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9903…046fbacked Yes | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…801bbacked Yes | 20c | 106$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ef…1331backed Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…fee7backed No | 62c | 104.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 72c | 104.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…c258backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…25eabacked No | 63c | 101.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed No | 68c | 101.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…e1b5backed Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…ac87backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…b347backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…dbb3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Yes won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.