TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc771…25ea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$6.17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.78
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+37%+$3.7
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$7.88
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.35
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.99
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.83
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+29%+$5.69
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
All 13 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Jazzbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+39%+$3.9
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.02
Spread: Heat (-5.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.02
All 4 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Zsombor Pirosbacked Zsombor Piros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.27
Monza: Raphael Collignon vs Luca Van Asschebacked Raphael Collignon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$5.95
Split: Tom Gentzsch vs Jonas Forejtekbacked Jonas Forejtek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.03
All 3 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.03
Flyers vs. Kingsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$21.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$10.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked South Florida Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanxi Loongsbacked Shanxi Loongs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.