Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c1e8de9d359a76055fe1be95e46a1e72d0537811dcc2ccf070cdfa73d8ba33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,090,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,371,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,090,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,439 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 40c | 114,922$46,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,825.64 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 1c | 107,367$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 64c | 90,534$57,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,919.89 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed No | 65c | 74,151$48,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,564.47 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 34c | 70,247$23,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,316.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 22c | 67,093$14,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,837.01 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed No | 40c | 65,289$26,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,248.12 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 57c | 56,477$32,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,200.14 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 67c | 50,000$33,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,500 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 66c | 43,283$28,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,560.42 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…b581backed No | 0c | 41,193$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 36c | 38,601$13,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,805.19 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 5c | 38,040$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 72c | 36,356$26,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,031.8 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 29c | 32,155$9,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,460.03 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 33c | 31,358$10,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,431.14 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…e24dbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…4c4cbacked No | 69c | 29,134$19,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 69c | 28,985$19,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,093.39 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 62c | 28,465$17,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,707.73 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 18c | 27,315$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.11 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed No | 37c | 26,978$9,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,867.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 34c | 26,451$8,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,549.73 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 7c | 25,014$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.17 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 36c | 25,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,000 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 68c | 24,382$16,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,470.01 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 9c | 23,936$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.95 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 72c | 23,521$17,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,483.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 65c | 22,963$14,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,934.19 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 29c | 20,887$6,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,728.83 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 0c | 18,415$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 7c | 18,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.67 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 48c | 17,987$8,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,309.99 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 16c | 16,551$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.64 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 62c | 15,872$9,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,079.76 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes | 36c | 15,488$5,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,912.35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f9f2backed No | 0c | 15,270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 76c | 15,204$11,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,676.79 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 50c | 15,151$7,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,559.45 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed6f…2668backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 34c | 15,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,899.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed No | 4c | 14,300$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…36e8backed No | 8c | 13,793$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…4e41backed No | 74c | 13,514$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…4863backed No | 74c | 13,514$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 49c | 13,389$6,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,578.06 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffa…8453backed No | 66c | 13,339$8,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,808.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 6c | 12,949$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…202abacked No | 74c | 12,901$9,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,547 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…fa56backed No | 0c | 12,847$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 38c | 12,272$4,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,659.58 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 57c | 11,846$6,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,057.11 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 73c | 11,757$8,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.92 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 49c | 11,265$5,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,552.35 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 26c | 11,006$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 4c | 10,837$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.19 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…644fbacked No | 38c | 10,202$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.22 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed No | 1c | 10,040$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8f…3179backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…306abacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked No | 69c | 10,000$6,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,850 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…1608backed Yes | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 38c | 10,000$3,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,202.29 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 50c | 9,989$4,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,957.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed Yes | 60c | 9,932$5,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,937.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 31c | 9,700$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,692.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes | 52c | 9,700$5,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,664.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…a3dbbacked No | 74c | 9,459$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Yes | 36c | 9,308$3,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,981.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebd…4a36backed No | 38c | 9,152$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed No | 13c | 9,042$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.51 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…b1f1backed Yes | 56c | 8,966$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,965.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 9c | 8,699$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.59 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 7c | 8,500$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.57 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…aabfbacked No | 12c | 8,346$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 43c | 8,231$3,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,560.15 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 11c | 7,857$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.93 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Yes | 50c | 7,800$3,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,895.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 7,751$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 28c | 7,648$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.81 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 5c | 7,617$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.55 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 62c | 7,608$4,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,692.75 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked No | 24c | 7,562$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.76 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed Yes | 67c | 7,386$4,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420.24 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 22c | 7,362$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.2 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed No | 5c | 7,344$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 73c | 7,222$5,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.74 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…0ef3backed Yes | 69c | 7,202$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…3f28backed No | 59c | 7,175$4,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,244.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 6c | 7,074$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.21 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 6c | 7,000$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.5 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 4c | 7,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 34c | 6,959$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,559.72 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 7c | 6,734$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.44 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed No | 69c | 6,666$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.53 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…8398backed No | 35c | 6,427$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed Yes | 55c | 6,403$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.07 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d95…34b0backed No | 62c | 6,353$3,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 9c | 6,271$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.22 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…202ebacked No | 7c | 6,270$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.