Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc84dfa2ab4a808d1b96a2cf439f8b88a1c5c37762253280deb7663a195d9b859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,743,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,808,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,743,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,747 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 228,201$174,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,768.74 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 75c | 168,068$126,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,035.63 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed No | 0c | 114,051$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 24c | 102,091$24,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,808.74 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 18c | 93,912$16,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,607.58 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed No | 36c | 84,854$30,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,211 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 66c | 84,147$55,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,410.88 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a4b3backed No | 0c | 68,170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 28c | 64,500$18,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,236 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0721…adf8backed No | 25c | 56,537$13,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,973.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed Yes | 79c | 52,891$41,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,278.99 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 21c | 51,872$11,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,027.29 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 23c | 51,046$11,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,799.46 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 1c | 47,804$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.69 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…c5c4backed No | 28c | 46,262$13,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,017.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 25c | 45,511$11,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,293.39 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed No | 0c | 37,983$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2d…631fbacked No | 23c | 37,297$8,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,748.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…e24dbacked No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 79c | 28,875$22,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,079.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…6424backed No | 31c | 26,403$8,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,076.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 60c | 25,414$15,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,099.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed No | 26c | 25,203$6,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,595.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…cdcbbacked No | 25c | 23,967$5,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,887.33 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed Yes | 79c | 23,562$18,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,840.36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 66c | 22,000$14,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,509.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 69c | 20,975$14,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,538.27 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 73c | 19,488$14,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,171.88 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…f698backed No | 33c | 19,186$6,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,390.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…8398backed No | 35c | 18,658$6,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,505.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…1ccfbacked No | 17c | 18,523$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 13c | 18,244$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.73 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 59c | 17,767$10,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,210.7 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 37c | 17,486$6,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,394.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 53c | 16,326$8,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,730.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…8cc2backed No | 24c | 16,062$3,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,833.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 75c | 15,828$11,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,954.6 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…d48bbacked Yes | 78c | 14,483$11,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed No | 21c | 14,211$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 76c | 14,131$10,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,342.78 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 26c | 13,875$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,561.26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 11c | 13,687$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.03 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 75c | 13,544$10,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.86 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…73e1backed No | 16c | 13,216$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed Yes | 75c | 12,658$9,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,224.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 40c | 12,620$5,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,068.21 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 79c | 12,262$9,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.34 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 76c | 11,852$9,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,801.41 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…2c4ebacked No | 22c | 11,780$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 68c | 11,530$7,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.74 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 76c | 11,432$8,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 26c | 11,418$2,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,991.91 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 73c | 11,400$8,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 29c | 11,056$3,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,153.26 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…be1bbacked No | 20c | 10,893$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 32c | 10,810$3,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,459.07 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 73c | 10,754$7,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.24 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…6424backed No | 24c | 10,169$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…0ef3backed Yes | 74c | 10,156$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 31c | 10,100$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed No | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 70c | 9,971$7,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964.73 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 24c | 9,840$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398.6 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…6924backed Yes | 77c | 9,779$7,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…644fbacked No | 42c | 9,329$3,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,907.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 64c | 8,744$5,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.22 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…4372backed Yes | 73c | 8,722$6,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 76c | 8,637$6,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.24 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 24c | 8,548$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.86 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 21c | 8,172$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.76 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0569backed No | 26c | 7,980$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.87 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 77c | 7,878$6,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.96 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Yes | 74c | 7,777$5,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…ff90backed No | 27c | 7,776$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…1e66backed Yes | 76c | 7,684$5,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 75c | 7,585$5,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cc…31ddbacked Yes | 75c | 7,520$5,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…b8afbacked No | 27c | 7,516$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 35c | 7,459$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.32 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…9ceabacked No | 23c | 7,320$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 78c | 7,200$5,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 26c | 6,989$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.4 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…e00bbacked Yes | 73c | 6,892$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 71c | 6,843$4,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.32 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 19c | 6,734$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.21 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2d…e59ebacked No | 26c | 6,656$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709e…027dbacked Yes | 61c | 6,590$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 24c | 6,588$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 33c | 6,470$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.77 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…cd01backed No | 27c | 6,168$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…be40backed No | 46c | 6,092$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed Yes | 76c | 6,000$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 76c | 6,000$4,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 75c | 6,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.99 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 25c | 6,000$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.99 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 45c | 5,977$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,689.74 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 79c | 5,914$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.48 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…27d3backed No | 50c | 5,882$2,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,938 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 76c | 5,736$4,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.6 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 5,652$4,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.37 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.