Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1507c50c86fb307e4f1acd9d740b2be66d98773f90d161e94907d8ef2c5699b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,913,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,358,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,913,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes | 4c | 983,866$42,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,067.05 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +251%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 21c | 244,884$52,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,171.69 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…b0a2backed Yes | 8c | 193,212$15,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,112.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 17c | 100,403$16,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,749.92 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 8c | 72,230$5,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,810.91 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 67,050$5,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,180.04 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 9c | 66,483$6,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,113.11 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 59,694$6,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,525.95 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 71c | 59,430$42,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,142.97 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 58,431$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.25 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 30c | 58,279$17,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,716.64 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 6c | 57,290$3,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,609.08 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 7c | 48,446$3,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,352.62 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 21c | 45,200$9,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,501.99 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 23c | 44,028$10,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,171.52 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 38,059$3,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,904.32 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 21c | 35,476$7,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,407.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 14c | 35,000$4,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,778.16 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 25c | 32,982$8,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,208.5 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 6c | 31,175$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.36 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…2988backed Yes | 19c | 29,373$5,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,650.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…9514backed Yes | 20c | 28,959$5,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,773.32 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…33dbbacked No | 67c | 28,717$19,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,358.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed No | 76c | 27,589$21,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,537.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 16c | 27,510$4,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,538.46 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 5c | 27,415$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.37 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…eda2backed Yes | 17c | 22,000$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 20c | 21,969$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,381.48 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5f…abefbacked Yes | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 77c | 18,916$14,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,360.8 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 8c | 18,485$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.45 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…4fe5backed Yes | 2c | 17,534$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.64 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed No | 77c | 17,318$13,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,971.05 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…8b52backed Yes | 13c | 17,317$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.57 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 75c | 16,939$12,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,280.88 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 27c | 16,931$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500.5 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce85…ccd7backed No | 79c | 16,224$12,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…7db4backed No | 78c | 15,616$12,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 20c | 15,531$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.73 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a4…ee4abacked Yes | 24c | 15,223$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…5626backed Yes | 28c | 14,930$4,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,191.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 73c | 13,047$9,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,579.25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 22c | 12,960$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.37 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…05cfbacked Yes | 24c | 11,808$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 18c | 11,741$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.76 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…0ef3backed No | 78c | 10,853$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c57…9a36backed No | 76c | 10,025$7,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…531ebacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 10c | 9,558$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.56 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fd…1cd0backed Yes | 18c | 9,544$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed No | 76c | 9,206$6,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 67c | 8,717$5,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.3 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 10c | 8,530$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.79 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 4c | 8,300$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.48 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 25c | 8,164$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.31 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 8,139$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 6c | 8,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 8c | 8,000$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 79c | 7,769$6,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.58 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…1ccabacked Yes | 6c | 7,768$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 77c | 7,691$5,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.87 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 19c | 7,141$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.5 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 27c | 6,999$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.3 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 8c | 6,968$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.54 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd175…46efbacked Yes | 2c | 6,772$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +340.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 13c | 6,515$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.96 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 11c | 6,428$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.79 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 15c | 6,400$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.36 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 15c | 6,378$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.26 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 20c | 6,237$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 24c | 6,167$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.25 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 78c | 6,145$4,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.89 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 6c | 6,133$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +447.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed Yes | 6c | 6,126$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 5c | 6,078$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…628fbacked Yes | 21c | 6,031$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…1b02backed Yes | 15c | 6,030$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.3 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 17c | 6,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 28c | 5,922$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.68 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…3ae9backed No | 76c | 5,840$4,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…6424backed Yes | 12c | 5,773$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…acbebacked Yes | 6c | 5,448$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 23c | 5,344$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.08 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…bddebacked Yes | 10c | 5,237$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.43 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 76c | 5,093$3,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.03 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.34 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…4cdebacked Yes | 46c | 5,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 15c | 4,903$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.81 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,900$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 23c | 4,682$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.69 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 70c | 4,618$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.33 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 11c | 4,448$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.25 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 22c | 4,382$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.15 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 78c | 4,186$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.