TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9e5b…7796

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT4337.2%16 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$503.45
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.4
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,375.21
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$591.28
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$500.44
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.4
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$933Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$933.21
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$844.2
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.34
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,869Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,869.22
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.11
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$289.62
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.12
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$490.36
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$464.28
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.82
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$418.51
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$170.62
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$848Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$848.28
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$512Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$512.26
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+86.2%+$172.44
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$909Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$773.98
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$484.52
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$263.86
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$176.05
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2520%5 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$810.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$831Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$830.56
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$637
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$673Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$672.98
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.36
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,353Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,352.62
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$857Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$857
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,193Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,193.23
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$506Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$505.82
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$990Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$810
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,115.03
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$686Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$686
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$593.81
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$902Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$901.86
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000.05
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,516Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,516.5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$784.93
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$812Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$811.8
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$680Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$680
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,048.92
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+100%+$500
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,004Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+354.5%+$3,559.96
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$4,721Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+796.5%+$37,604.29
All 25 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$805Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$805
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,386Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+155.2%+$6,806.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,093Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,093.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolinibacked Jasmine Paolini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.79
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.