Middle East · resolved market
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc49142a0a94b68377bbc3f2e7f7f53a400274e2dcd4536cfa343be55a3c1fdf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,042,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,946,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,042,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 27c | 288,573$77,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,799.73 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 78c | 139,316$109,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,032.45 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 55c | 130,542$72,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,148.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 35c | 85,732$30,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,474.05 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 42c | 81,074$33,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,265.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 50c | 70,418$34,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,909.75 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 29c | 67,392$19,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,523.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 14c | 50,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…2b0fbacked No | 34c | 47,846$16,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,738.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…6b34backed Yes | 34c | 46,728$15,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,698.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 57c | 36,138$20,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,561.98 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 41c | 35,721$14,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,817.39 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 50c | 35,324$17,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,567.05 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 55c | 34,359$18,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,768.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 36c | 30,887$11,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,700.01 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 72c | 30,815$22,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,043.23 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 24c | 29,895$7,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,145.59 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 74c | 29,849$22,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,816.47 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 39c | 29,237$11,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,429.88 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 37c | 29,102$10,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,346.96 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 37c | 28,970$10,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,199.44 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 48c | 28,000$13,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,422.85 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…548cbacked Yes | 49c | 26,919$13,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,086.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 60c | 26,614$15,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,741.9 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 31c | 25,446$7,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,481.44 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 28c | 25,421$7,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,097.6 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 72c | 25,001$17,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,112.15 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…ccefbacked Yes | 21c | 23,145$4,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,782.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…7e28backed No | 39c | 22,072$8,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,401.67 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 37c | 21,778$8,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,756.76 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked No | 51c | 21,138$10,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,438.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…133fbacked Yes | 67c | 20,000$13,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,497.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 71c | 20,000$14,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,199.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 23c | 19,999$4,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,691.56 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 19,928$5,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,940.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 37c | 19,671$7,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,453 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked No | 27c | 18,684$4,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,710.92 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 25c | 18,548$4,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,715.38 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 20c | 17,810$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.84 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 21c | 17,144$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.65 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 79c | 17,111$13,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,605.22 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 70c | 16,845$11,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,844.2 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…a718backed Yes | 63c | 16,836$10,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,624.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 32c | 16,572$5,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,304.35 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 74c | 15,871$11,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,749.33 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 15,712$8,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,024.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 33c | 15,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,050 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked Yes | 48c | 14,959$7,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,126.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 49c | 14,326$7,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,307.79 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 43c | 14,223$6,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,042.57 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 61c | 14,182$8,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,651.16 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 35c | 14,000$4,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,104.92 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 44c | 12,960$5,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,316.86 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…a94bbacked No | 55c | 12,402$6,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,519.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked Yes | 65c | 12,299$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…d8ccbacked Yes | 11c | 12,081$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…077abacked Yes | 8c | 12,019$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 43c | 11,169$4,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,795.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 63c | 11,030$6,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,921 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 49c | 10,950$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,392 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 59c | 10,804$6,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,346.23 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 29c | 10,795$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,647.57 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes | 17c | 10,785$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.79 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…ba73backed Yes | 80c | 10,712$8,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,556.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 71c | 10,399$7,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,337.52 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 45c | 9,900$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500.05 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 32c | 9,878$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,668.68 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 70c | 9,809$6,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.93 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 16c | 9,805$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.83 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 51c | 9,611$4,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,661.93 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked No | 44c | 9,507$4,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,329.51 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 60c | 9,342$5,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,782.64 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 76c | 9,311$7,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.77 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 54c | 9,237$4,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,264.12 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 64c | 9,176$5,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,896.17 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7449…be3cbacked Yes | 32c | 9,098$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 31c | 9,093$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,298.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 74c | 9,085$6,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,715.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 31c | 9,069$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,295.86 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 47c | 8,896$4,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,164.25 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 61c | 8,671$5,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,346.17 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…b0debacked Yes | 76c | 8,615$6,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,567.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 32c | 8,602$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,806.6 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 63c | 8,500$5,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,377.37 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 59c | 8,500$4,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,989.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 67c | 8,479$5,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,648.76 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x426c…cc45backed Yes | 68c | 8,062$5,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,464.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 25c | 8,011$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes | 59c | 7,802$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…609fbacked Yes | 49c | 7,745$3,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,809.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 53c | 7,738$4,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 10c | 7,701$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 7,666$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.33 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 72c | 7,651$5,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,510.27 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 36c | 7,608$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,838.7 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255e…f6dcbacked Yes | 67c | 7,554$5,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,083.51 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 50c | 7,438$3,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,703.73 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 75c | 7,417$5,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.31 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 29c | 7,305$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,154.08 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 28c | 7,158$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another country strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will another country strike Iran by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.