TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4b79…47e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Lol, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 50 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT3246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,799Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,798.63
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.44
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$4,524Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$1,482.19
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$471.81
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.28
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,537Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,536.84
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,044Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$1,338.29
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,248Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+93.2%+$3,959.05
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$326.11
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$338.23
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,383Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,383.11
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,845Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,845
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$3,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,049.99
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,515Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,514.98
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$259.99
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,044.99
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19,805Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$19,805.46
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+43.9%+$251.04
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,875Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+33.3%+$625
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,750Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+30.4%+$1,750
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,345Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+29.1%+$974.18
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+316.7%+$1,900
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT2425%6 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$52,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52,099.66
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$4,968Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,968.45
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,262Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,262.49
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.86
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,478Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,477.85
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,531Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,531.18
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,345Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,345.4
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+150%+$600
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$790
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winnerbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$634.11
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,455Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+118.2%+$1,719.3
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,860Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+34.8%+$2,037.1
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winnerbacked Vivo Keyd Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.51
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.75
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.17
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3)backed Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,202Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,202.18
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$668Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+109%+$728.16
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$1,740
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,650Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$2,349.99
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winnerbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,464Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,463.57
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$4,673Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,673.4
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,316Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,316.21
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$5,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,226.03
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$4,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,170.78
All 24 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Democrat Party (DP) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$320
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$2,095.32
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$110.18
Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$135.45
Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+47.7%+$102.85
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$561.2
Will António José Seguro win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$12.28
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$244.42
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$2,633.53
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,887Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$2,886.97
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,692Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,692.04
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,005Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,004.9
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$8,583Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,583.04
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$795Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$795.18
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.5
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.31
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$339.53
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$5,780Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$5,780.24
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,050
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,708Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,708.13
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,381Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$4,381.16
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.