TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KT Rolsterof Gen.G, KT Rolster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,007,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,555,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,007,297 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 687 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3c2…26aabacked Gen.G2c166,376$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.042544%11 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Gen.G71c48,984$34,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,589.532133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ef7…15c6backed Gen.G67c44,722$29,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,912.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e08ebacked Gen.G1c41,150$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-71.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed KT Rolster33c32,695$10,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,884.3736433.8%123 W · 241 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e9f…7d7fbacked Gen.G12c30,759$3,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.329535.8%34 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b2…df60backed Gen.G2c30,248$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Gen.G55c27,613$15,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,120.1411650%58 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Gen.G8c27,314$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.5835448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked KT Rolster79c27,002$21,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,552.163959%23 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41bc…c75bbacked Gen.G26c24,322$6,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,283.041361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Gen.G10c22,870$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28719041.1%78 W · 112 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ca…18afbacked Gen.G24c22,500$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5001625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e32…4683backed Gen.G0c19,931$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.933046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…93d7backed Gen.G71c17,776$12,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,676.376467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed Gen.G31c15,963$4,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,968.452425%6 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5077…badcbacked KT Rolster29c14,703$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,403.451770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+59.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb1bf…f74bbacked Gen.G66c13,968$9,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,280.81944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d33…6abebacked Gen.G2c13,587$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb326…7075backed Gen.G2c13,252$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3917410.9%19 W · 155 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed KT Rolster52c13,097$6,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,265.1831644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked KT Rolster68c13,000$8,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.9814840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Gen.G0c11,833$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.831428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ee…1391backed KT Rolster80c11,487$9,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.749149.5%45 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Gen.G13c11,264$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.517839.7%31 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed KT Rolster60c11,179$6,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,493.4418340.4%74 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Gen.G9c10,622$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.2614425%36 W · 108 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed KT Rolster29c10,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,10013846.4%64 W · 74 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed50…9e1fbacked Gen.G1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003366.7%22 W · 11 L+7.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+328.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Gen.G66c9,644$6,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,362.9525446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed KT Rolster28c9,080$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,577.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked KT Rolster27c9,000$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,569.96541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Gen.G72c8,915$6,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,400.7951160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed KT Rolster30c8,645$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,081.551573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+58%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked KT Rolster29c8,070$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.4966437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a3…e3a5backed Gen.G70c7,914$5,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,570.321822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-51.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked KT Rolster74c7,850$5,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.086549.2%32 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Gen.G69c7,794$5,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,377.8457947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d0…0d9bbacked Gen.G31c7,595$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,372.351735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f16…5fe7backed KT Rolster29c7,557$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,395.133256.3%18 W · 14 L+7.6wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+83.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb7ae…84cebacked Gen.G72c7,247$5,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,232.592842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16dc…a65fbacked Gen.G25c6,500$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6451618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3520…3bf6backed Gen.G0c6,494$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed KT Rolster38c6,256$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,905.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Gen.G25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006538.5%25 W · 40 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1059…e187backed Gen.G9c5,961$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2997…6c34backed KT Rolster70c5,751$4,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.9310653.8%57 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Gen.G20c5,742$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.4435243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d05…39dbbacked Gen.G71c5,554$3,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,958.091723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked KT Rolster39c5,550$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,398.1611548.7%56 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf596…7745backed Gen.G66c5,243$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.283461.8%21 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd54…3ffebacked Gen.G10c5,234$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48fc…58e6backed Gen.G73c5,117$3,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,730650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Gen.G1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506732.8%22 W · 45 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c7…2868backed Gen.G1c4,655$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.551060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe478…610ebacked Gen.G2c4,600$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104735.5%4 W · 69 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-64.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa684…0c4cbacked Gen.G6c4,533$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick33cpaid+93.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Gen.G71c4,513$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.1441752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb506…e6b3backed KT Rolster75c4,403$3,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.661338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabf…2814backed KT Rolster70c4,387$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.835949.2%29 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked KT Rolster49c4,333$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.231,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5abd…b9f5backed Gen.G12c4,253$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.7750%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked KT Rolster42c4,174$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,42121549.3%106 W · 109 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…b63fbacked Gen.G7c4,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6589…2e65backed Gen.G18c3,921$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.02633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231c…7e0bbacked Gen.G38c3,800$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.991060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Gen.G70c3,700$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5731,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ebf…ff4abacked KT Rolster77c3,649$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.27153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed KT Rolster80c3,600$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72050569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed KT Rolster28c3,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.8635431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Gen.G10c3,511$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.073327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Gen.G68c3,500$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.961,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d08…b0e7backed Gen.G14c3,454$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+174%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked KT Rolster29c3,394$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.3521060%126 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked KT Rolster40c3,289$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.61,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a1…e9babacked Gen.G9c3,280$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.031442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa87b…3063backed KT Rolster31c3,226$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.811675%12 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+61.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xad4f…b0bcbacked Gen.G60c3,160$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.116147.5%29 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed KT Rolster39c3,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.991,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8200…94b6backed KT Rolster51c2,773$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.61475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+123.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked KT Rolster32c2,700$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.9813150.4%66 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Gen.G11c2,696$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30051852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939f…6d5ebacked KT Rolster34c2,639$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.788728.7%25 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d09…eabcbacked Gen.G1c2,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Gen.G59c2,578$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5263767.6%25 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Gen.G74c2,500$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.731241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Gen.G6c2,458$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9623915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6812…6646backed Gen.G70c2,429$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7003754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…f14abacked Gen.G2c2,397$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Gen.G16c2,394$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.8413525.2%34 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked KT Rolster63c2,329$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.0421740.1%87 W · 130 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9064…18f5backed Gen.G11c2,306$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc28…b541backed Gen.G65c2,275$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Gen.G2c2,240$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2312022.5%27 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Gen.G4c2,165$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6112132.2%39 W · 82 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Gen.G69c2,073$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.6719150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea1…94dcbacked KT Rolster39c2,032$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.925839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e9c…0f95backed Gen.G11c2,023$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f0…d75abacked Gen.G15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a6…8632backed KT Rolster30c2,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.