TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x761a…d9ba

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
324
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: CS2, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 58 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT13150.4%66 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 131 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$896Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$896.27
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winnerbacked Vivo Keyd Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.29
LoL: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Shifters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.84
LoL: G2 Esports vs Shifters - Game 1 Winnerbacked Shifters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.29
LoL: SK Gaming vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winnerbacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.78
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.1
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$459.76
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+37%+$67.31
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$235.62
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.02
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.2
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.28
LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised - Game 2 Winnerbacked Disguised · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.94
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.9
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,617Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,617
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$861Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$1,051.9
LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winnerbacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$545Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$367.7
LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winnerbacked Vivo Keyd Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$335.23
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$59.23
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,754Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,754.22
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,275.27
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$581Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$1,292.84
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,728Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,728.16
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+300%+$660.48
Showing 25 of 131 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST2259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+212.5%+$186.32
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$208
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+65%+$193.98
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$85.71
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$31.29
Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$94.12
Will Leeds United win on 2025-09-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Brighton win on 2025-09-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Brentford win on 2025-09-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$298
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$200
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+94.3%+$128.23
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$92.66
Will Brentford win on 2025-09-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$53.16
Will West Ham win on 2025-09-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$57.16
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+42.6%+$192.97
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$962Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$961.54
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Fulham win on 2025-08-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,501Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+37%+$555.2
All 22 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT2060%12 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,281Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,281
Will Levante UD win on 2025-09-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$61.83
Will Girona win on 2025-09-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$196.13
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$358.55
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$98.51
Will Alaves win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$110.53
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$128.57
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$410.65
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+71.2%+$356.22
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$53.16
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Espanyol vs. Mallorca end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,378Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$349.64
Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+53.3%+$106.68
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$692Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+56.9%+$393.67
Will Getafe win on 2025-09-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Getafe win on 2025-08-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+42%+$16.79
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,054Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+32.5%+$667.2
All 20 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Marinersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$147.9
Mariners vs. Blue Jaysbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
White Sox vs. Nationalsbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$397.1
Rockies vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+25%+$62.5
Pirates vs. Bravesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$655Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+43%+$281.44
Orioles vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+49.1%+$204.8
Twins vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$81.69
Brewers vs. Padresbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$753Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+79.2%+$596.44
Nationals vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Rockies vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+37%+$110.96
Marlins vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$399
White Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$664Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+42.6%+$283.09
Mariners vs. Astrosbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+37%+$110.96
Padres vs. White Soxbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+71.6%+$143.22
Red Sox vs. Raysbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+33.7%+$101.13
Giants vs. Diamondbacksbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Cubs vs. Piratesbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+46.6%+$233.04
Marlins vs. Brewersbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$326.55
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10,128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+66%+$6,679.62
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$532Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$531.88
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+133.9%+$1,538.11
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,882Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32%+$602.55
Norway vs. England: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$572.73
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,286Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$615.6
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.73
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.22
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.99
Argentina leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.8
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$124.35
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$390.2
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$108
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$153
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+26%+$51.92
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+44.9%+$44.98
Will France win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+49.3%+$53.46
Hawks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+72.4%+$181.03
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+66.7%+$240
Trail Blazers vs. Kingsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+40.8%+$38.28
Cavaliers vs. Bullsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$567.7
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$200.19
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+47.1%+$50.82
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$290.73
Cavaliers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+88.5%+$352.74
Trail Blazers vs. Bucksbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+56.3%+$134.44
Bulls vs. Pelicansbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$284.4
Spread: Magic (-14.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$828Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+88.7%+$733.93
Lakers vs. Hawksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$628.48
Mavericks vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$928Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$927.55
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,027Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+54.9%+$563.12
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,310Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+71.5%+$935.91
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST1656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$163
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+157.4%+$451.77
Erste Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Popyrin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.97
Swiss Indoors Basel: Sebastian Korda vs Ugo Humbertbacked Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+103.1%+$272.17
Pan Pacific Open: Maya Joint vs Karolina Muchovabacked Joint · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$205
Erste Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexander Zverevbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$25.45
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Six Kings Slam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+51.6%+$250.58
European Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Jiri Leheckabacked Perricard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Elias Ymer vs Denis Shapovalovbacked Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+77.6%+$387.93
European Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$349
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Holger Rune vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Rune · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$150.88
European Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Benjamin Bonzibacked Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$294.44
European Open: Zizou Bergs vs Raphael Collignonbacked Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$248
China Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Sonay Kartalbacked Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$753.77
US Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paulbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$461.54
US Open: Karen Khachanov vs Nishesh Basavareddybacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+29.1%+$91.61
All 16 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$265.64
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$63.92
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$763Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$207.7
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$463.7
Will Union St. Gilloise win on 2025-10-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$738Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+28.3%+$208.71
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$720
Will Monaco win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$105.41
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$81.65
Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs. Pafos FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$158.33
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,539Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+38%+$585.2
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will Union St. Gilloise win on 2025-09-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will FK Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-08-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.52
Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Celtic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$115.69
All 15 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Sep 25, 2025, EDT1283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$328.91
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$70.27
Will FCSB win on 2025-09-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+53.9%+$107.85
Will Nice win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$77.78
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+45.3%+$244.66
Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$150.88
Will SC Braga win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$700
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+25%+$50
Will Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2025-09-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$114.14
Will Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-08-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+45.1%+$86.38
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-08-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+44.3%+$154.67
All 12 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. BC Dubaibacked Hapoel Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+54.1%+$210.63
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Panathinaikosbacked Panathinaikos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+82%+$58.56
BC Dubai vs. Olimpia Milanobacked Olimpia Milano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Real Madridbacked Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Olympiacos B.C.backed Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+48.8%+$194.65
BC Dubai vs. Barcelonabacked Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$157
Valencia vs. Hapoel Tel Avivbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+100.2%+$200.3
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Barcelonabacked Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$192.5
Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+96%+$748.68
Euro Basket: Turkey vs Greecebacked Turkey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$745Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+94.9%+$707.03
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+41%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2025, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick74cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 28, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mystics vs. Libertybacked Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$142.02
Aces vs. Skybacked Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Old Dominion vs. South Floridabacked Old Dominion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+50.5%+$77.65
Boise State vs. Utah Statebacked Utah State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$165.5
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.