Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2598d867a8eef85e17b42dfac7f1ef317a3952458b1cd9da4eca2b0cc782b0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 1,563$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 74c | 1,316$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.62 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 21c | 999.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 79c | 954.42$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.43 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 38c | 890.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.28 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 38c | 779.01$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 39c | 634.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked Yes | 78c | 633.94$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 31c | 527.46$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.58 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 14c | 517.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 58c | 430.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.31 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 43c | 327.15$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 34c | 205$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 76c | 201.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 28c | 199$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 54c | 175.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…789abacked Yes | 76c | 164.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 74c | 147.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 72c | 144.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 56c | 138.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 77c | 136.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 129.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 26c | 118$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 115.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…5840backed Yes | 78c | 112.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 33c | 112.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 70c | 108$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 32c | 103.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 74c | 90.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 29c | 46.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 52c | 34.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 73c | 27.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…7468backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc673…ca1ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…b8cebacked Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Yes | 79c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.