TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x26ab…41c1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
259
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Serie A, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 63 out of 100; worst Champions League at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST4727.7%13 W · 34 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Premier League — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+112.8%+$12.51
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Tottenham vs. Brentford: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+566.7%+$113.33
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12.36
Liverpool vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$31.51
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)backed Liverpool · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)backed West Ham · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5)backed Aston Villa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20.99
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+88.7%+$88.68
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$155.8
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$177.27
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$169.15
Manchester United vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$184.62
Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-10-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST3426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.3wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Champions League — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)backed FC Internazionale Milano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$100
PSV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+138.1%+$138.1
Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-1.5)backed Olympiakós SFP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$22.43
Spread: FC København (-1.5)backed FC København · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+37%+$73.97
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+302%+$179.07
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-11-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-3.5)backed FC Internazionale Milano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)backed Newcastle United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+108.3%+$129.52
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+108.4%+$216.85
Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will PSV win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+163.2%+$81.58
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$34.58
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+85.1%+$85.1
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Alaves win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+194.1%+$97.06
Villarreal vs. Getafe: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Real Oviedo vs. Mallorca: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+177.8%+$88.89
Girona vs. Real Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$114.84
Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Mallorca vs. Getafe: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+127.3%+$127.27
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+66.7%+$46.67
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Villarreal vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$138.98
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$184.62
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.48
Will Mallorca win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$359.97
Real Oviedo vs. Espanyol: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$69.05
Will Athletic Club vs. Girona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$63.95
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elche CF win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+100%+$80
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST3246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Scotland vs. Denmark end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$17.05
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+70.4%+$52.88
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+100%+$100
Will Chile win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+99.6%+$122.63
Will Algeria win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Malawi win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Kenya win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Poland win on 2025-11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+100%+$200
Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$203
Will Qatar win on 2025-11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+108.3%+$108.33
Will Italy win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Israel win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+25%+$50
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$189.3
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+33.3%+$66.67
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+29.9%+$47.9
Will Thailand win on 2025-11-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+29.9%+$17.92
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$58.73
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+25%+$50
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+72.4%+$72.41
Borussia Dortmund vs. 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+78.6%+$78.57
RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+150%+$75
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)backed RB Leipzig · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+167.9%+$124.97
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+168.7%+$168.72
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+170.3%+$85.14
Spread: 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)backed 1899 Hoffenheim · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+109.3%+$131.13
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+163.2%+$48.95
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+25%+$50
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.09
1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$29.33
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+104.1%+$150.57
Union Berlin vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+100%+$200
Will Werder Bremen vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+33.3%+$16.67
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)backed Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+185.7%+$185.71
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+37%+$36.99
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST2171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.4wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+51.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Serie A — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+185.7%+$92.86
Atalanta vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Will Lecce vs. Verona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+177.8%+$35.56
Verona vs. Inter: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+85.2%+$85.19
Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$200
Napoli vs. Como: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$23.57
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$18.42
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$16.25
Lecce vs. Napoli: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Udinese win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$208.16
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Udinese win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Will Parma win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
Will Lecce vs. Cagliari end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$88.89
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
All 21 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+102%+$101.97
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+170.3%+$170.27
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+170.3%+$170.27
FC Midtjylland vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+64.3%+$115.72
Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-10-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will FC Utrecht vs. Lyon end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+203%+$121.82
Will BSC Young Boys vs. Panathinaikos end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. FCSB end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$101
Will Celtic win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will PAOK win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST1540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+33.3%+$16.67
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Paris FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$8.06
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$71.34
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-10-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Paris FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+76%+$114.04
Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will OGC Nice vs. Paris FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+266%+$79.79
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
Will Lille OSC vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will AJ Auxerre vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 15 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$12.68
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+177.8%+$35.56
Will Hamarkameratene vs. Sandefjord Fotball end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-11-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+25%+$25
Will Heracles Almelo vs. PEC Zwolle end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+35.1%+$35.14
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+25%+$25
Will Vejle BK vs. Silkeborg IF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+37%+$36.99
Will FC Twente '65 vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Will Kayserispor win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
All 9 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Trail Blazersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+26.6%+$26.58
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Rolex Paris Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Reilly Opelkabacked Opelka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+32.5%+$32.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.