Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2699be7e0225a0f1fdbd832635e932683484745041764e0030c3e4c22ba81213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 30,000$11,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,695.12 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 61c | 17,729$10,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,938.95 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 11,261$8,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 62c | 9,986$6,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749.65 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 75c | 7,589$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 25c | 6,671$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.6 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…7cbebacked Yes | 36c | 2,907$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 40c | 2,501$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 73c | 1,953$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.31 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 27c | 1,953$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.31 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked No | 67c | 1,640$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 1,098$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.69 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 27c | 1,096$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 32c | 1,072$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.14 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab7…d178backed No | 65c | 991.96$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 5c | 931.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 37c | 800$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 73c | 763.95$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.46 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 74c | 700$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.09 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 36c | 696.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 25c | 666.64$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 64c | 602.56$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 36c | 600$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 35c | 545$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.13 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 78c | 453.57$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 39c | 387.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 32c | 377.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 276$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 271.59$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 64c | 269.41$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 77c | 266.87$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 37c | 199.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 62c | 190$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 175$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 73c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 64c | 138.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 11c | 110.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d27…c460backed Yes | 39c | 105.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 32c | 104.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 63c | 89.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 36c | 71.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 39c | 66.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 72c | 64.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…5325backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 36c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 63c | 25.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…cadcbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 60c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will FC Augsburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.